archived: 4 - 10 Jun, 2006         Back                 Next

                        AVOID EXCESSIVE EXUBERANCE  

Democrats lost the special election in California 50.  Democrats are spinning the narrow loss in a Republican performing district as evidence that Democrats can be competitive anywhere.  Republicans are spinning the loss as evidence that the Democratic issue of “culture of corruption” did not work.  Cutting through the spin of both parties takes a bit of effort. 

First, the Republican won:   

Second, In 2004, Kerry/Edwards got 44% of the vote in California 50.  Busby, without adequate financing and running against former incumbent Republican Rep. Randy “Duke Cunningham” lost this District in 2004, garnering only 36.5% of the vote. 

Third, the voter registration for this District is heavily Republican: 

Fourth, in our mix of known facts, Republicans spent a total of some 11 Million Dollars while Democrats expended some 4 Million Dollars.  

Fifth, the voter turn out Tuesday was approximately 38%.  We do not yet know what proportion of Democrats, Republicans and Independents turnout out to vote, a key fact.  

These are the initial bottom lines: 

1. Both parties spend some 15 Million Dollars in one Congressional District and only generated a 38% turnout.  Neither Party demonstrated the ability to connect with the electorate in such a way as to alter historic low turnout patterns.
    

2. If Democrats suspected a political tsunami, it did not materialize.  While the Democrat increased her performance over 2004, by some 9 percent, she topped the Kerry/Edwards result in the District by less than 2%.
    

3. Bush’s low approval ratings obviously did not translate into sufficiently large blocks of Republicans crossing Party lines to vote Democrat.  Upon first blush, Republicans held their base.
    

4. This election was decided on turnout.  Republicans worked on early voting, and the Republican candidate got a 10,000 margin over the Democrat in the early vote.  Stated another way, Republicans out worked the Democrats in securing the early vote.  Democrats have to learn better ways of competing in this aspect of the campaign.

To TPJ’s knowledge, no exit polls were conducted in this race.  The Republican pushed the “hot button” issues of immigration in this race, in a District that is physically near Mexico.  There is a post-election assumption, perhaps correct, that the issue helped hold their base. Democrats should also consider that in the days leading up to the election that Republicans were opening the debate in Congress on banning same sex marriage.  While one would never assume that the national debate was timed specifically for the California 50 election; the timing of the debate may have helped inspire the Republican base. 

Democrats obviously made some progress in this District, but progress is not victory.  Democrats need to take the lessons learned in California 50 and turn them into a winning strategy.   

                        BUSH BOUNCE 

Two new polls to open June and Bush has gotten a bit of a bounce, +2.33%.  While Cook/RT Strategies and Gallup’s are typically slightly skewed above TPJ’s average for Bush, both new polls confirm that Bush’s strategy of playing to his political base is having effect.  It is much too early to determine whether this trend will continue. 

The Republican strategy is sublime.  First, raising social issues that are important to the Republican religious right is designed to divert attention from issues, such as the war in Iraq, that weaken their support, while regaining support from this Republican core group.  Most recently, Republicans advanced the gay marriage amendment in the US Senate, consuming three days of debate, knowing that the measure would not come close to passage.  Even though the constitutional amendment cannot pass, Republicans are pressing the debate in the US House of Representatives: 

The Senate voted down a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage on Wednesday, but Republicans planned a vote in the House of Representatives to keep a national spotlight on the hot-button issue.  . . .   The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to take up the marriage amendment in July, though Republican leaders do not expect it to pass there either.

"This is a big issue for lots of our members and frankly for lots of Americans," House Republican Leader John Boehner of Ohio told reporters on Tuesday. 

Second, Democrats are forced to defend an unpopular position, favorably contrasting the Republican Party in perception of their base. Boehner is correct.  Americans are overwhelmingly opposed to gay marriage as these two most recent polls showing almost identical results suggest: 

Charles Franklin, Political Arithmitik (a TPJ favorite), analyzes where Bush got the bounce:

So where is the increase coming from? So far, mostly from Republicans. Gallup reports today . . .  that approval among Republicans increased from 68% and 70% in early May polls to 78% in the new June poll. This reversed a slide and restored Republican support to about where in was in March and April. Independents showed a 3 percentage point uptick between early May and June, while Dems remained stuck at 8% approval. The Quinnipiac results are similar, with 74% Rep approval, 28% Ind and 8% Dem. 

Bush is not only trying to recapture support among the Republican religious right, but fiscal conservative programs.  TPJ readers may have noticed that even as the Republicans are debating the “losing” issue of gay marriage that the White House is circulating word that Bush, after the mid-term elections, will advance the Republican economic agenda, including another attempt at Social Security privatization: 

Congress should make Social Security overhaul its top priority next year, while a rewrite of the tax code and revamping the nation's healthcare system probably will wait until at least 2009, House Ways and Means Social Security Subcommittee Chairman Jim McCrery, R-La., said today. McCrery said it will take the expiration of tax cuts in 2010 to build enough political support for tax reform, even though President Bush and many Republican lawmakers would like to tackle it sooner. "I think the president wants to do tax reform, and I'm certainly ready to help him do tax reform in '07 and '08. ... Looking at the lay of the land politically and substantively, it seems to me the more logical order would be Social Security, then tax reform, then healthcare reform," he told reporters after addressing the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. McCrery said Congress should take up Social Security first because doing nothing would have "tremendous negative fiscal consequences," and it is easier to solve from a policy standpoint than fixing Medicare and Medicaid. "If we can get [Social Security] done, I think that buys us the political capital to move on to the bigger issues of health care," he said. 

The Republican message to both of their major constituencies is quite clear.  If you vote with the Party in November to keep majorities in Congress, the Republican Party it will advance your issues; win or lose. 

It is a strategy that is working; the question is how well.     

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                        THE ISSUES