archived: 29 Jan - 4 Feb, 2006         Back                 Next

                        A PREVIEW? 

In Nevada, Democrats may be witnessing the preview of Rove’s 2006 national election strategy and the Democratic Party counter response.  The Republican Party is already running ads attacking Sen. Minority Leader Reid. 

One suspects that Republicans timed the early attack on Minority Leader Reid to coincide with Judge Alito’s confirmation hearings.  To the credit of the DNC, Democrats are countering the Republican attack.   

The focus of Republican ads is national security.  This is the pitch, which can be viewed at the RNC website: 

Standard Republican, Rove, ad hominem attack. 

The DNC has responded with an ad that attacks Bush on various policy failures, except the war on terrorism.  The DNC campaign is: 

discrediting President Bush's oft-repeated mantra: "We make a pledge. We keep our word."

The ad points out that 2.8 million manufacturing jobs have been lost since Bush became president, the federal budget deficit now stands at $337 billion and the "No Child Left Behind" Act remains underfunded. President Bush's image is prominently featured throughout the spot -- perhaps a hint of advertising to come for Democrats both nationally and locally.

Karen Finney, a DNC spokeswoman, said her committee's ad is a sign that Democrats won't let RNC allegations go unanswered. "We are here to fight," she said.  Finney added that the ad is also set to run in Nashville, Tennessee, where President Bush is scheduled to visit next Wednesday.

Neither party committee would divulge the amount it is spending on the commercials, but it is safe to assume that Democrats and Republicans aren't breaking the bank in this fight.  What's more important than how much is being spent on the ads, however, is what the ads say about where each side wants the midterm election to be fought. 

The Republican line of attack and the Democratic Party counter may portend the national strategies of both Parties.  However, one has to ask why the DNC chose not to directly counter the Republican record on protecting America from terrorism.  The DNC did not run an ad mentioning: 

No weapons of mass destruction;
No capture of Osama;
No Niger “yellow cake,”
No “Mission Accomplished,”
No “They will greet us as liberators”;
Killing of thousands of innocent Iraqis;
Torture of innocent people,
The election of a fundamental Muslim government in Iraq;
The corrupt loss of tens of millions of dollars in Iraqi aid; and
An assault on traditional American constitutional values. 

For rank and file Democrats it is perplexing that after some four years the Party appears to concede the issue of protecting America to the Republican Party.  It is a conclusion that the American public also appears to have reached.  Democracy Corps asked the question of which Party “knows what they stand for.”  The response should shock every Democrat as Republicans are seen as knowing what they stand for by a +21% margin over Democrats.

In the Democracy Corps polling, Democrats have positive comparative standing with the American public on every other concept polled except on terrorism and keeping Americans safe.   Democracy Corps found:

Is it any surprise that the Democrats -21% negative rating on knowing what they stand for is nearly equivalent to the public’s perception of Democratic Party performance on security and keeping people safe, -17%. 

Rove’s analysis of the 2006 election may, in fact, be correct. If Republicans are successful in making security the central issue in the mid-term elections, and if Democrats abandon the issue to Republicans, the final results may be, again, devastating to our Party.  

                        BROKE? 

Gov. Dean is on the proverbial “hot seat.”  Word is filtering throughout Washington that the National Democratic Party is, relatively speaking, broke.  If reports are to be believed, the DNC has only 5.5 million dollars on hand while the Republicans have 34 million dollars for the 2006 mid-term election cycle.  

If true, Gov. Dean is in for a bashing from Congressional Democrats and some Party leaders.  While Democrats never achieve parity with Republicans in fundraising, a nearly 7 to 1 spread in favor of Republicans will be a severe disadvantage in the Fall.  

While Dean may have to shoulder responsibility, Democratic Party elected leaders will have to shoulder responsibility as well.  Recall the Democracy Corps poll results above:

Who is going to donate to a Party when they don’t know what they stand for?  Who indeed!

_____________________________________________

                        STUCK 

TPJ’s latest analysis of public polling demonstrates that Bush remains stuck with an approval rating in the lower 40% range. From January 2005 to January 2006, Bush has dropped almost 8% in “approval” and over 10% in those “disapproving” his handling of the presidency.    

Bush’s approval average approval rating has fallen in nine of the last twelve months.  The monthly average spread between approval and disapproval remains in double digits for the fifth straight month. 

With numbers like these and only 10 months to the mid-term elections, it appears that Bush will not be an asset to his Party’s efforts in most states.   

                        SHIFT? 

There is an inkling of favorable trends for Democrats that potentially effect the 2006 mid-term elections.  Voter Party identification appears to be edging towards the Democratic Party. 

Gallup polling during 2005 found the following (emphasis added): 

Overall, in 2005, basic party identification was even -- 33% of Americans each identified as Republicans, independents, and Democrats. When independents' leanings are taken into account, the Democrats gain an advantage -- 48% of Americans either identified as Democrats or leaned to the Democratic Party, while 43% identified as Republicans or leaned to the Republican Party. That represents the largest Democratic advantage since 2000. Democrats have typically held an edge in partisanship in modern U.S. political history, so the recent changes can be thought of as a return to the past. 

Harris’ interactive polling reaches a similar conclusion as Gallup (emphasis added): 

The Harris Polls conducted by telephone in 2005 show the Democrats slightly increasing their modest lead over Republicans in party identification to six percentage points from three percentage points in 2004. This is the largest Democratic lead since 2000, when it was eight percentage points.

These are the results of Harris Polls conducted by telephone throughout 2005 among a total of 4,945 U.S. adults. Most Harris Polls are now conducted online, but to ensure consistency in comparison with the previous years, only the telephone surveys are included in these tables.

Other results of these surveys, which provide averages for the whole of 2005, are:

Almost two-thirds (63%) of both Republicans and Democrats consider themselves "strong" supporters of their parties.

Independents comprise 22 percent of all adults, down slightly from 24 percent in 2002, 2003 and 2004.

Conservatives continue to outnumber liberals by a wide margin (34% to 20%), but this is down slightly from a 36 to 18 percent margin in 2004.

Moderates continue to exceed conservatives (42% to 34%). 

The shift recorded by both Harris and Gallup, if it continues into 2006 may be indicative that Democrats will make gains in the 2006 Congressional elections.  One Democratic Party commentator, DemFromCT provides this cogent analysis: 

But what's happening here is that Bush is continuing to lose independents. He has not made a political comeback, despite the bloviating from the house media. This summary clearly shows Bush mired in the low 40's pre-SOTU, and a short-lived bump means nothing at all. When you include Rasmussen at 45%, ARG at 36% and Harris at 43%, and the newest Diageo Hotline at 44% (down from 50 a few weeks ago), the idea that Bush has somehow put his troubles behind him is just silly talk.

Does all this guarantee a Dem win? Absolutely not . . . .  

I can't begin to speculate about 2008, but I don't see the same old tactics working for the Rs in 2006, though they'll keep running the same plays until they lose. And 2006 may be the year the playbook fails them. 

TPJ will continue to follow the “signs” in weeks to come.

NEXT- MICHAEL CARMICHAEL

Last Update: 03/23/2006