archived: 15 - 21 Jan, 2006         Back                 Next

                        A TPJ EXCLUSIVE SERVICE FOR YOU 

TPJ has added a new feature for its readers. 

In the Tar Heel Dems Cellar, below, you will find TPJ’s NC Senate Battleground Press Clippings.  We have tentatively identified nine battleground State Senate Seats that may well dictate whether the Democratic Party retains control of the chamber. 

TPJ’s clipping service searches North Carolina newspapers and the internet daily to find articles related to these races – keeping you in the know on a statewide basis.  The clippings will be updated twice a week on TPJ, on Thursday and Sunday. 

To view the articles posted, just click on the TPJ’s NC Senate Battleground Press Clippings icon below.  Districts are arranged in numerical order, identifying the current status of the District, naming the counties and providing the 2004 results. 

Articles are listed in descending order by date.  To see any particular article, just click on the blue title (which is a hyperlink).  Some articles do not stay online after a period of time, so some links may become out of date. 

So, be an informed Democrat.  Check TPJ’s clipping service regularly.   

Once you have used the clipping service, PLEASE provide FEEDBACK.  How can TPJ improve the service for you?  Let us know what you think. 

If the service for the State Senate is helpful, TPJ plans to add a service for NC House races and the battleground Congressional races. 

TPJ adds this service to keep TPJ as one of the leading webzines on North Carolina Democratic Party politics.  We are honored that you continue to make TPJ a part of your political reading.

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                        FOXX ESCAPES  

State Democrats got more bad news this past week in NC’s 5^th Congressional District.  Allen Joines, Democrat Mayor of Winston Salem, has decided not to challenge Republican Virginia Foxx. 

The reason is fairly straight forward.  Joines polled the district and discovered that he faced a very problematical task in unseating Rep. Foxx. 

Joines announced yesterday that he will not run for Congress. . . .

 

Before making the decision, Joines also paid a Democratic research group $12,000 to poll 5th District voters about his chances against Foxx. What Joines found out was that even when President Bush's approval ratings were dipping nationwide, they remained strong in Northwest North Carolina. Nearly seven out of 10 district voters picked Bush in the 2004 election.

 

From the Piedmont to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the northwest, the district has 12 counties with a wide majority of registered Republicans and with Democrats who tend to vote conservatively. Since 2000, Democratic candidates have carried the district in just two of the 43 statewide races, according to the N.C. Forum for Economic Research and Economic Development.

 

"Clearly, (the district) is one of the safest Republican seats in the United States. It is that Republican-friendly," said John Davis, the forum's executive director.   

Joines decision reinforces points that TPJ has made.  First, Bush’s falling approval ratings, even in North Carolina, do not directly correspond with winning Congressional seats.  Every District and candidate field is unique and must be analyzed individually. 

Second, expecting any Democrat to run and win in a district where even local Democrats cannot get elected is counter intuitive.   

The question for Democrats in Districts like the 5^th is how to start organizing and laying the foundation for change; this year and with long term goals.  Until the Democratic Party answers that question, the 5^th District will remain out of the realm of possibilities for Democrats. 

And, Rep. Foxx, who is running for reelection for the first time, may get an easier pass. 

                        EASLEY FOR ……? 

Gov. Easley has political junkies throughout the State talking about his condemnation (emphasis added) of Republican domestic policy in Washington.   

Mike Easley seems to be trying to raise his public profile, recently submitting a guest column to three of the country's largest newspapers: The New York Times, The Washington Post, and the Los Angeles Times.

 

In a column titled, "Washington Should Be Ashamed," Easley blasts recent budget cuts made by the U.S. House in health care for the poor, college loan programs and home heating for the poor.

 

"Some observers believe that these heartless and wrong-headed actions in Washington have finally tipped the balance against the party in power," Easley writes in a column not yet published. "That prediction may or may not come true.

 

"But regardless of political outcomes, I know for sure that a number of policy makers in Washington should be ashamed of themselves."

 

The language by Easley, a moderate Democrat, is more partisan and liberal than usual. As a result, it has started tongues wagging. 

Pundits immediately took Easley’s article, to be released nationally rather in the State as a sign that Gov. Easley aspires to national office as his term as Governor will end in 2008.  Gov. Easley immediately denied that he had any aspirations to run for the US Senate. He carefully crafted this message in response: 

"This is not about politics," Easley told WRAL. "It's about what's right and what's wrong and what this latest budget did is wrong."

 

He reacts quickly when reminded that the themes sound purely political.

 

"People can make of it what they want, but they have to deal with the facts," Easley said.  

Is Gov. Easley burnishing his national image for a run for President?  Perhaps.  TPJ speculated on Gov. Easley’s potential as a contender in GOV. EASLEY FOR PRESIDENT and EASLEY: THE SOUTHERN DEMOCRATIC FORMULA.  

TPJ’s take on Gov. Easley’s article differs from the political hype it has received.  We believe that Gov. Easley’s article reflects classic Gov. Easley strategy: 

1.       Gov. Easley did not name Republicans as the culprits despite the fact that Republicans control the US House with an iron glove.  He is carefully working the issues, which are Democratic Party issues, to independents and Republicans who may agree or be persuaded on the issues.  

2.       Gov. Easley relies on the fact that Democrats know who he is attacking, Republicans, while framing the issues from a non-partisan perspective.  Simply stated, Gov. Easley is able to stay “above” the scourge of partisan politics that offends many Americans. 

3.       Gov. Easley specifically chose to attack on issues involving children and the elderly.  Detractors will have a difficult time mounting an effective counter attack to his message.  

4.       If Gov. Easley had released his article within a State publication, it may have received one or two runs.  By focusing the article nationally, the North Carolina press sensed a major news story and played the story more broadly.   

5.       Gov. Easley’s success as Governor during his term remaining will depend in large measure on Democrats retaining majority control of the State Senate and State House.  Easley is laying the foundation of issues that Democrats will run on this November.  

Easley’s strategy works.  As we noted in EASLEY: THE SOUTHERN DEMOCRATIC FORMULA, he attracted sufficient Republicans and independents to fashion a compelling reelection victory as these exit poll results clearly indicate. 

                        TSUNAMI  

Erskine Bowles, President of the UNC System, summed up the challenges for education in North Carolina (emphasis added): 

“If we don’t get more people better educated, that next new thing is not going to be created here,” Bowles said. “It is going to be created in India or China or Singapore. The jobs of the future will be there, not here.’’

 

Bowles said that for every 100 eighth-graders in North Carolina, only 58 will graduate from high school. “Thirty-eight will get to college, 28 will come back after the first year and only 18 will come out of the pipeline with a college degree,” he said.

 

“That won’t cut it in this knowledge-based economy,” he said. 

The article hyperlinked above provides a good overview of educational needs in North Carolina and is a must read. 

Is there any doubt that education needs to be a principal issue for Democrats in 2006?   

                        MINIMUM WAGE – NO BRAINER  

State Treasure Richard Moore, who is eying a run for Governor in 2008, surprised political pundits with his call for an increase in the State’s minimum wage by $1.00.  Moore’s rationale: 

Earlier this week State Treasurer Richard Moore made some compelling arguments as he encouraged North Carolina corporate executives and other business leaders to support a $1 per hour increase in the minimum wage.

 

For business leaders, the most persuasive argument may well have been that businesses do better when people have more money to spend.

 

“Raising the minimum wage is a pro-business policy,” Moore argued. “Study after study has shown that in the periods after a minimum wage increase, the labor market shows few negative effects. In fact, some studies have even shown that the labor market improves for low-income workers. This is because businesses actually start to do better when consumers have more money in their pockets.” 

Some of TPJ’s political sources speculate that Sec. Moore, who is viewed as a conservative, is trying to position himself to the “left” on one or more issues to appeal to Democratic Party regulars. Democrats may be over analyzing Moore’s engagement of the issue, particularly engaging the issue before business and industry leaders in North Carolina.  

Increasing the minimum wage has broad support in the public and across political lines.  A Gallup poll in November returned these results: 

For the last two decades, public support for an increase in the minimum wage has been supported by 75% or more of the American public. 

A case can be made that Sec. Moore is using the Easley Formula (discussed above), engagement of an issue that has broad appeal (83% nationally), an issue that is difficult to counter by its opponents, and engaging the issue outside of a partisan political context.

TAR HEEL DEM CELLAR