archived: 8 - 14 Jan, 2006 Back Next
A SURPRISE – OUCH!
There are always surprises in politics – some good, some bad.
Last week, Democrats caught a potential break when:
[Republican] Rep. State Sen. Ham Horton - a hold-over from an earlier age and one of the last true characters in the General Assembly - announced yesterday that because of an ongoing battle with cancer, he will not run for re-election next year to a ninth term in the Senate. . . . He was elected to the Senate from Forsyth County again in the Republican wave of 1994, and he has been there ever since.
TPJ identified Sen. Horton’s seat as a potential pick up for Democrats in 2006.
This week, Democrats got a surprise, but a painful one. It appears:
[Democrat State Senator] Scott Thomas said he would seek the office [as District Attorney in Carteret, Craven and Pamlico counties] in November's election after [Democrat] W. David McFadyen Jr. Tuesday announced his retirement effective at the end of the month. McFadyen has recommended to Gov. Mike Easley that Thomas fill the post until the election. . . .
Thomas was first elected to the N.C. Senate in 2000, following a two-year stint in the state House. As a senator, he sponsored legislation increasing the penalties for death by vehicle, child exploitation and larceny.
TPJ has heard from good sources that Sen. Thomas’ appointment as District Attorney is a forgone conclusion. Of course, Sen. Thomas will immediately resign from the General Assembly.
Sen. Thomas is from the 2nd Senate District; Carteret, Craven and Pamlico counties. The 2nd District is a “swing” District that Sen. Thomas won in 2004 with slightly over 54% of the vote. Republicans had already targeted the 2nd District for 2006, but TPJ had predicted that Sen. Thomas could hold the seat for the Democratic Party.
With Sen. Thomas leaving, Republicans will assuredly put even more resources into capturing this District. TPJ understands that Democrats have already recruited a viable candidate, but Democrats will have to work extremely hard to hold the 2nd District.
Sen. Thomas’ departure also increases the risk that Democrats could lose majority status in the State Senate. The current balance is 29 Democrats and 21 Republicans. The Republicans now have the five seats they need to pick up:
District 2: Open Democratic Seat Swing District
District
9: Sen. Julia Boseman
Democratic Seat
Swing District: Boseman won
by less than 1,000 votes
2004.
District 43:
Sen. David Hoyle Democratic Seat Republican
District: Hoyle
is a Democrat in the
most
Republican District in the State.
Won
in 2004 by less than 4,000
votes.
District 46:
Sen. Walter Dalton Democratic Seat Swing: Dalton, who
has
announced his plans to run
for
Lt. Governor in 2008, won by
slightly over 4,000 votes.
District 50:
Sen. John Snow Democratic Seat Republican
District: Snow, a
very popular former Judge in the
District, won by less than 300
votes.
Three weeks ago, conventional political wisdom suggested that the best result Republicans could work for in 2006 was parity with Democrats in the Senate, 25 to 25. With a Democratic Lt. Governor, Democrats would retain control of the chamber. Today, Republicans have a very viable game plan to win the Senate in 2006.
TPJ has updated WINNING THE STATE SENATE which appears below in TPJ’S TAR HEEL DEMS CELLAR.
IRRESPONSIBLE REPUBLICAN GAS
Democrats in the North Carolina General Assembly make a stand against Republican calls for cutting North Carolina gas tax. Democrats are clearly won this round.
While Republicans, and some Democrats, were calling for a special session to stop the automatic rise in the gas tax increase that came into effect January 2006, the Democratic Party leadership in the General Assembly convened a joint committee to hear the issue.
The message that Democrats conveyed is that repealing the 2.8 cent increase in the gas tax may not be passed on to consumers:
A repeal of a recent gas tax increase won't guarantee a drop in prices at the pump, an industry representative told lawmakers grappling with higher gasoline prices Thursday.
"It just depends on what's going on with prices at that time," said Gary Harris, executive vice president of the N.C. Petroleum Marketers Association.
While some Republicans were calling for repeal, several business groups were not supporting repeal of the gas tax increase. In particular, NC Business and Industry did not support repeal. Why? Economic development would be hindered.
Other officials noted:
Mark Foster, chief financial officer for the N.C. Department of Transportation, said if the increased tax is repealed, consumers could face lost time on the roads and more wear and tear on their vehicles. He also said the department would have to make adjustments so it does not run out of money by the end of the summer.
"Reducing revenue by tampering with the gas tax would set our transportation infrastructure back years and result in a greater backlog of unmet needs," Bill Carstarphen, co-chairman of the group NC GO!, which advocates for increased transportation funding, said in a written statement.
How much would repeal of the gas tax save the average driver in North Carolina:
$15.00 a year
In fact, North Carolina has a significant gap between road needs and the financing to pay for those needs.
The cost to bring the [road] system up to prudent status, and fund major widening and planned new roads is about $27.8 billion. Under current funding policies, about $24.1 billion is likely to be available for pavement repair, major widening, and new construction over the next 8 years. Thus, the gap between needs and likely disbursements is about $3.75 billion over 8 years. If highway spending were increased by this amount, the economic impact to North Carolina would be about $747 million annually, or about 7629 jobs. – John Locke Foundation
Safety issues are also implicated for drivers on North Carolina roads. Information before the Join Committee indicated that accidents could be reduced by 35% if older North Carolina roads were widened by just three feet.
Did these facts sway any tax cutting Republicans? It appears not as exemplified by one Republican legislator from Onslow County:
Rep. Robert Grady, R-Onslow, one of the house members appointed to the committee, said the arguments still didn't change his belief that the almost 3-cent tax increase, which started Jan. 1, should be repealed.
Republicans also like pointing out that North Carolina has one of the highest gas tax rates in the United States. True! But Republicans conveniently leave out the fact that in most states, county governments have to pay a share for roads; in North Carolina the state bears the entire burden.
Democrats need to be making the case that tax cutting Republicans are acting irresponsibly with their slavish adherence to tax cuts that that even conservative groups recognize would:
Curtail economic development and job
growth
Probably not result in any driver saving a dime at the pump; and
Result in more road accidents that could be avoided with widening of
older North
Carolina roads.
Republican policy on the gasoline tax is simply irresponsible.
TPJ KUDOS
Progressive Democrats in North Carolina have earnestly advocated for a Democratic Party that will lead a major reform effort to negate the undue influence of special interests over government policy. Congressional Democrats have unveiled a reform package that is receiving very favorable national review.
Read the story and the Rep. Obey reform package in today’s THEM DEMS section of TPJ. These North Carolina Congressmen have signed their support for the reform package. They receive TPJ KUDOS.
Rep. G. K. Butterfield
Rep. Bob Etheridge
Rep. Brad Miller
Rep. David E. Price
Rep. Melvin L. Watt
While not all of the provisions would apply to the North Carolina General Assembly, the Obey reform package provisions related to lobbyist activities and former members of the legislative body could be effectively adapted to the General Assembly.
Will North Carolina Democrats demonstrate there is indeed a difference with the Republicans?
These are features that TPJ has previously published that have continuing research relevance for North Carolina Democrats. Simply choose a subject and click on the icon to access these features and research. TPJ readers who find research materials that may be of value to Democrats across the state should alert TPJ in order that the material may be posted for all.
Last Update: 03/23/2006