archived: 1 - 7 Jan, 2006         Back                 Next

                        THE LONG GOODBYE  

Bush faired poorly in 2005 as TPJ’s monthly chart averaging publicly released polls, below, demonstrates.  Bush started 2005 with majority support, 51% of Americans approving his performance, and having just barely winning reelection.  Bush ended the year with a clear majority, 53%, of Americans disapproving of his performance.   

Bush’s public standing reasonably mirrors polling results of American’s attitudes of whether America is headed in the right/wrong direction.  In mid-December, Cook Political Report published these results: 

2005 leaves Bush trying to govern with his Republican base, a small percentage of independents and an even smaller percentage of Democrats.  If these numbers fail to improve, Bush will have distinct problems in advancing sweeping legislation through Congress. 

John Zogby provides an insightful analysis: 

The unpopularity of the war in Iraq not only is dragging the public’s support for this president’s fight in the war on terrorism – now only in the high forties where it was 64% when he was re-elected – but is also causing a drag on everything the President says and does. Mr. Bush is no longer seen as truthful and, and in a public mood that can best be seen as throwing the baby out with the bath water, the public is piling it on, giving the president low marks in every category we have tested – the war, foreign policy, the economy, health care, protecting social security, and even gas prices (which the public understands is something a president cannot control).

And in our recent year end poll, we find that the president not only gets low marks from Democrats (11%) and Independents (24%), but has now lost support from key groups he needed in his re-election: married voters, gun owners, investors, Catholics, and voters in the so-called Red States (those that he carried in 2004). In fact, Mr. Bush gets only a 52% positive rating among Born-Again Christians and only 71% among conservative, much lower numbers than he needed to win and needs to govern effectively.

Polls taken near the end of the year show an improvement for Mr. Bush, but the uptick reflects only that he is regaining the support from a portion of his political base that had been disenchanted.

Barring anything unforeseen, this president will most likely not see the positive side of 50% again. He banked his presidency and his political capital on the war in Iraq and is now at the mercy of things on the ground that are beyond his control.

In short, Mr. Bush appears to have won many political battles along the way, but he may end up losing the war, both figuratively and literally, as his presidency behaves like that rubber ball which, at the mercy of gravity, eventually, inevitably runs out of bounces and rolls down the gutter. 

Politically, Democrats have real opportunities in 2006.  However, the reality is that just as Bush’s poll numbers bottomed in less than a year those numbers can change if the Democrats fail to make the case that the Democratic Party should control of America’s future. 

                        SIGNS OF HOPE  

Rhinebeck, New York has been solidly “Republican” since 1904.  That changed in a town election last month.   The story (emphasis added): 

Voters, by a solid 15% margin, elected the first Democrat Town Supervisor since 1904. That's 101 years . . . of Republican rule in [a] largely blue-collar and lower-middle class community of 2725 whose medium household income falls just shy of $30,000.

Steven Block, who'll be paid $14,175 annually to preside over Rhinebeck's political system, may be just a small town legislator, but he symbolizes what could be a sweeping victory for Democrats in next year's Congressional mid-term elections fueled by a hugely frustrated and disenfranchised national electorate.

Democrats swept Rhinebeck's races, with party candidates winning town supervisor, town council and highway superintendent seats. Block had defeated two-term incumbent supervisor Dennis McGuire. After his victory, Block said, "Never before have the Democrats enjoyed this much responsibility" in town government.

And it is precisely these types of small town elections across America that could be a tell-tale sign of major trouble for the Republican party. 

Readers should carefully note that Rhinebeck is in upper New York State and while Democratic Party victories anywhere are welcome, this could be just another example of a generally “blue” state getting “bluer” rather than a distinctive geographical shift in favor of the Democratic Party.                       

                        DEMOCRATS TARGET SEVEN 

Senator Chuck Schumer, who heads the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, has announced the seats that they will target to recapture majority control of the US Senate.  The Democratic Party strategy is based on holding every seat they currently hold; there are 14 Democrats up for election this year) and winning six of seven targeted Senate seats currently held by Republicans. 

The targeted races are:
Rhode Island: Chafee
Pennsylvania: Santorum
Ohio: Dewine
Missouri:  Talent
Montana:  Burnes
Tennessee:  Frist
Arizona:  Kyl 

The Cook Report lists Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Tennessee as “toss up;” Montana and Missouri as “lean Republican;” and Arizona as “likely” Republican.  As Sen. Schumer noted, everything will have to run in the Democratic Party’s direction for the strategy to work.   

Over the next several weeks, TPJ will begin featuring polling and news on each of the races in these states.

NEXT- MICHAEL CARMICHAEL

Last Update: 03/23/2006