Tar Heel Dems

archived: 19 - 26 Feb, 2006 Back Next

TWO DAYS TO GO

Filing for the General Assembly will close on Tuesday.

State House

Current candidate filings reflect that Democratic Party majority control of the State House will be highly contested and will hinge on the outcome in a small number of Districts, not more than 28, across the State. Democrats enjoy a 53-47 majority in the House. A Republican net gain of +4 Districts could end Democratic Party control of the House.

In analyzing candidate filings to date, the overall impression is that both parties are fielding candidates on an equal footing. With two days left to file, that analysis could change drastically.

As of Friday, the raw numbers are as follows:

Total Democratic Party Districts	63

w/ NO Opposition	39
w/ Primary Opposition and No Republican Opposition	3
w/ No Primary Opposition but Republican Opposition	21

Total Republican Districts	57

w/ NO Primary Opposition but Democratic Opposition	12
w/ Primary Opposition and Democratic Opposition	1
w/ Primary Opposition and No Democratic Opposition	12
w/ NO Opposition	32

Both parties appear to be fielding candidates in “swing” Districts. [TPJ’s definition of a “swing,: lean and “safe” Districts is taken from an informed North Carolina source that TPJ considers reliable but that wishes to remain anonymous. TPJ has also included the ratings of NC Free, a respected source, for readers to cross reference as a second opinion.]

Dis.	Incumbent	Inc. Party	Opposition	2004 D v R Election Percent	2004 Informed Proj.	2006 Informed Proj.	2006 NCFREE proj.
2	Tim Spear	D	Daniel M. Beall-R	appointed to seat	D	D	LEAN D
3	Underhill	D	Mike Gorman-R, Michael Speciale-R	51-47	LEAN R	SWING	LEAN R
10	LaRoque	R	Van Braxton-D	43-57	SWING	SWING	SWING
17	Stiller	R		49-50	SWING	SWING	SWING
51	Open	R	Tim McNeill-R, Jimmy Love-D	incumbent not running	LEAN R	SWING	SWING
77	Coates	D		61-39	SWING	SWING	SWING
86	Church	D	Hugh Blackwell-R	100-0	SWING	SWING	SWING
90	Harrell	D		58-42	SWING	SWING	LEAN R
111	Moore	R		45-55	SWING	SWING	SWING
112	England	D		61-37	SWING	SWING	LEAN R

Based on this analysis, Democrats have challenged Republicans in two of four swing Districts held by the opposition. Republicans have challenged in three of six swing Districts held by Democrats. [District 2 is listed as “swing” based on the retirement of the elected incumbent Democrat and appointment of a successor.]

In Districts that “lean” Democratic or Republican in performance, Democrats have 11 Districts at risk and Republicans have filed in 6 of the 11. Republicans have 8 Districts at risk and Democrats have fielded candidates in 4 of those Districts. Republicans appear to have a very slight advantage in aggressiveness in fielding candidates in this category.

Dis.	Incumbent	Inc. Party	Opposition	2004 D v R Election Percent	2004 Informed Proj.	2006 Informed Proj.	2006 NCFREE proj.
4	Tucker	D		100-0	LEAN D	LEAN D	SWING
6	Williams	D	Joel Roupe-R	55-45	LEAN D	LEAN D	SWING
9	McLawhorn	D	Tony Moore-R	100-0	D	LEAN D	SWING
39	Coleman	D	John Blackwell-R	54-46	SWING	LEAN D	LEAN D
44	Dickson	D		58-42	D	LEAN D	LEAN D
45	Glazier	D	Alex Warner-R	60-40	D	LEAN D	LEAN D
57	Harrison	D	Joseph W. Rahenkamp-R	57-43	SWING	LEAN D	D
63	Bordsen	D		55-45	D	LEAN D	D
81	Holliman	D		100-0	LEAN D	LEAN D	SWING
115	Goforth	D	Eric Gorney-R	60-37	D	LEAN D	LEAN D
119	Haire (not filed)	D		52-48	D	LEAN D	SWING
11	Pate	R	Ronnie Griffin-D	0-100	R	LEAN R	LEAN R
25	Daughtridge	R		0-100	R	LEAN R	SWING
26	Daughtry	R		0-100	R	LEAN R	SWING
41	Capps	R	Ty Harrell-D	0-100	R	LEAN R	SWING
53	Lewis	R	Frank Stewart-D	41-59	LEAN R	LEAN R	SWING
93	Wilson	R	Cullie Tarleton-D, Dan Hense-R	45-52	R	LEAN R	LEAN R
109	Current	R		39-61	R	LEAN R	R
110	Clary	R		37-63	R	LEAN R	R

In 45 Districts rated as “safe” Democratic Districts, Republicans have fielded candidates in 11 of those Districts. Two incumbents, Districts 12 and 22, have primary challengers but no Republican opposition.

Dis.	Incumbent	Inc. Party	Opposition	2004 D v R Election Percent	2004 Informed Proj.	2006 Informed Proj.	2006 NCFREE proj.
1	Owens	D		100-0	D	D	SWING
5	Hunter	D		83-17	D	D	D
7	Ed Jones	D		100-0