archived: 12 - 18 Feb, 2006         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  February 16, 2006 

                        OFF TO THE RACES 

Filing for legislative has opened and will continue through the end of the month.  

The hyperlink below is to chart of the Senate candidates.  The first days of filing have brought no real surprises, but a few items of interest. 

NC Senate Candidates 

In Senate District 2, the resignation of former Democrat Thomas has attracted two Republicans in this “swing” district.  Gov. Easley has appointed C.W. “Pete” Bland to replace Thomas.  This will be a hotly contested District that TPJ will be following. 

In Senate District 8, Democrat icon R.C. Soles has opposition from Republican Shirley Babson, who currently serves on the local school board.  This could be a race to watch.  

In Senate District 50, Democrat John Snow already has three Republicans fighting to challenge the first term Democrat. Sen. Snow won this District by only some 300 votes in 2004.   

The hyperlink below is to the chart of House Candidates.  Unlike the Senate, the first few days of filing has demonstrated more activity. 

NC House Candidates 

Several themes already are apparent in the House contests.  Perhaps most interesting, Republicans are continuing the intra-Party fight between “RHINOS” and “true conservatives”  that splintered their Party in 2004.  In Districts 13, 15, 52, 67, 79, 84 & 98, Republican challengers are filing against Republicans.  However, these are “Republican” districts, and Democrats have not mounted any challenges in these Districts thus far.  

Second, Republicans are fielding candidates against progressive Democrats.  Carefully note that in Districts 9, 12, 54, 58, 66, and 69 Republicans are fielding candidates in Districts that are “strong Democrat,” with the Democrats tending to be progressive.  

It is still very early in the filing process.  One would expect the Senate filings to become more active and for the House to offer a few more surprises.

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UPDATED:  February 14, 2006 

                        A WINNING STRATEGY TO LOSE  

D. G. Martin, an icon in the Democratic Party, has authored an article in The Sanford Herald that every Democrat should read.  Martin’s article reinforces TPJ’s hypothesis that North Carolina Democrats are developing a winning strategy to lose.  

First, Martin cites John Davis of NC Free and Republican guru Paul Shumaker: 

The state is becoming more and more Republican, he says, due in large part to the immigration of people from other regions. At the same time, he observes that North Carolina is becoming more liberal. These new North Carolinians, while Republican, are generally not as conservative as most native North Carolinians, including many Democrats.

 

The new Republicans are not the same kind of “sure bet” straight ticket voters as Republicans were in the past. In NCFREE's “Almanac of North Carolina Politics,” Davis quotes Republican political consultant Paul Shumaker: “Twenty years ago, Republican candidates running statewide (were) assured of winning 85 percent of their party's base vote.”

 

Today, according to Shumaker, they can count on only 60 percent sure votes from their party's base. 

Davis and Shumaker are correct in their analysis of the shift in Party registration and the influx of some “moderate” Republicans into the North Carolina electorate.  Appeal to these “moderate” Republican voters is the winning formula that Gov. Easley has so artfully constructed.  

TPJ, in EASLEY: THE SOUTHERN DEMOCRATIC FORMULA, noted Easley’s success in holding the Democratic Party base and bridging to attract enough Republican voters to win. Easley’s near identical reversal of numbers with Sen. Kerry in North Carolina was built largely by holding the Democratic Party base of minority and union voters and adding a significant number of white, rural voters who voted for Bush.

This chart clearly shows Easley’s winning formula:

The difference between Gov. Easley and Sen. Kerry’s minority vote is nearly negligible.  Easley garnered the support of 17% more while males than Kerry and 16% more white females. In NC that is the difference between winning by more than 10% and losing by more than 10%.

Gov. Easley was able to attract both moderate and even conservative white voters, increasing performance over Sen. Kerry by 11% among moderates and 15% among conservatives. 

These moderate and conservative voters are white, and appear to be rural voters who are decidedly Christian.  The following charts make the point:

First, Easley’s spread among Protestant and Catholic voters was +12% and +6% over Sen. Kerry’s performance.  Second, note above that Gov. Easley and Sen. Kerry’s vote was essentially the same in urban NC, while Sen. Kerry outperformed Gov. Easley in suburban areas.  Easley’s increase in votes came from rural NC, +18%. 

A substantial segment of the Protestant vote in NC is fundamentalist. Among white evangelical, born again Christians Easley increased his vote over Sen. Kerry’s spread by 13%. 

And, a large segment of these voters identify themselves as Republicans (+13% over Kerry) and Moderates (+10% over Kerry). 

For progressive Democrats in North Carolina, the Easley Formula is exactly the point of achieving a victory that is destined to lose from the progressive perspective.  As Martin points out in his article: 

Democratic candidates, faced with growing Republican strength in registration, must court these new independent minded Republicans in order to win statewide elections. And Republicans have to work harder to hold on to the more liberal Republicans that immigration has brought them. 

Progressive Democrats cannot expect the North Carolina Democratic Party’s elected leaders, collectively, to articulate progressive legislative agendas when our candidates have to appeal to “moderate” Republicans in order to win.  If there is a perception that the Democratic Party has become “Republican-lite,” herein is a basis for that perception.  

From the perspective of progressive Democrats the situation will only get worse.  The State Democratic Party will not, in 2006, have a broad based voter registration program.  In 2004, Democrats, statewide, barely held their own in new voter registration with the Republicans.  In reality, the Democratic Party success in voter registration was more narrowly confined across North Carolina 100 counties in comparison with the Republicans.  TPJ, in VOTER REGISTRATION, noted that: 

In 2004, Democrats actually bested Republicans in voter registration between January 2004 and October 2004 by some +11,000 statewide.  Democrats “won” the registration drive principally by excellent voter registration work in the major metropolitan areas; Durham, Buncombe, Charlotte, etc.  The numbers clearly demonstrate that the Democrat Party effort was not uniform statewide.  Eleven counties had LESS than a 100 registration gain.  A total of 23 counties had less than a 200 voter registration gain. 33 counties had less than a 300 vote gain for the Democrats.  But it was a “victory” over NC Republicans. – TPJ, VOTER REGISTRATION   

Because the Democratic Party success in voter registration has been more geographically confined and given the fact that State legislators are elected across the State, Democrats outside of the “urban areas,” must increasingly rely on bridging to Republican voters to build a winning majority.  

Therefore, Democrats may, even in 2006, retain their legislative majorities.  However, many elected Democrats are going to be constrained in the legislative agendas they can support.   

A principal key for a more progressive legislative agenda is increasing voter registration and participation among those registered.  As noted in previous TPJ articles, Sen. Kerry bested President Bush by more than 11% among voters less than 30 years of age.  The problem for Democrats is that age group accounted for only 14% of the total vote.  

The North Carolina Democratic Party will not organize a statewide voter registration program in 2006.  The logic is that in an “off-year” election, the voter turn out is smaller and the key to victory is to invigorate the core base of Democrats to vote.  This strategy may succeed in retaining Democratic Party legislative majorities in both Houses of the General Assembly, but it is a sure path to disappointment for progressive Democrats.  If Republican voter registration continues to increase, the Republican Party will prevail.  With Republicans actively registering voters in 2006 and Democrats not doing so, we will certainly start the 2008 election cycle at a disadvantage and have to play “catch up.”   

The State Democratic Party’s failure to build the strategy and machinery for a first class voter registration drive in 2006, is a significant failure of leadership and vision.  It may well be a winning plan in 2006 that is destined to lose. 

Progressive Democrats across North Carolina should be demanding that the State Party build a party not only for 2006, but one that can sustain itself into the future.  If not, Democrats in North Carolina will certainly become more Republican than Democrat.  

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                        CALM BEFORE THE STORM 

Filing for State legislative seats opens officially this week and continues throughout the month.  The next several weeks will reveal the strategy of the Senate Democratic Party Caucus and House Democratic Party caucus to retain and hopefully expand their legislative majorities. 

There were no surprise announcements during the past week, which was dominated by a few incumbents announcing their bids for reelection. 

TPJ will provide updated analysis as filings occur.  However, several early trends appear to developing.  First, control of the State House and Senate will probably be decided in a very small number of Districts.  In the Senate, the number of seats that will be seriously contested may be as few as seven and in the State House the number of strongly contested seats may be as few as twelve. 

Second, the division between “conservatives” and “moderates” in the Republican Party appears to be leading to some interesting races.  In several Districts, it appears that “conservative” Republicans are trying to oust “moderate” incumbents and “moderates” are challenging several “conservative” Republicans.   

Stay tuned.   

                        SOME CONFUSION 

The Progressive Democrats legislative agenda for the 2006 legislative session is causing a bit of confusion.  

First, this is the Progressive Democrats agenda for the upcoming legislative session (the blue hyperlinks lead to the actual resolution adopted by the NC Progressive Democrats: 

1. Minimum Wage Bill (sponsored by Alma Adams):  This passed the House last year, but the Senate added corporate tax cuts to the bill before letting it die. After Richard Moore’s endorsement, it stands a decent chance of passing both houses in 2006.   There is already a buzz in favor of this one.  This bill is number one the Legislative African-American Caucus’ agenda.
    

2. Death Penalty Moratorium:  Impose two-year moratorium on executions (sponsored by Joe Hackney).   This bill nearly passed the House last year and still has a strong coalition supporting it.  The original bill passed in 2003, was sent to be studied, and was written so it could be brought up in this session.  But unless it gains support from moderate Democrats it’s going nowhere.  This issue is number two on the Legislative African-American Caucus agenda.
    

3. Ethics.  The Lobbying Reform bill passed in last year’s session, but it doesn’t take effect until 2007.  Progressives should support the early implementation (i.e. NOW) of last year’s lobbying reform bill (scheduled to take effect in 2007 unless changed), as well as the three primary new goals of the Coalition for Lobbying Reform: Establishing an independent state ethics commission for both the legislative and executive branches, banning political contributions and campaign fundraising by registered lobbyists, and banning all gifts from registered lobbyists to legislators (with a few minor exceptions). 
    

4. Same-day voter registration: Would allow for same-day registration at one-stop early voting sites. This idea is championed by Deborah Ross and is alive because of a procedural technicality. 
    

5. North Carolina Housing Trust:  urges its legislators to support increased funding of the NC Housing Trust Fund, and to appropriate a minimum of $10 million annually for that purpose.
    

6. Energy efficiency:  Establish permanent state funding for State Energy Office, which is about to lose its external source of funding, in order to promote renewable energy and energy efficiency.  With rising energy prices, legislators are eager to advance policies that promote energy efficiency.   There is currently no pending bill, but it is a budget item and can be discussed.  We need the energy office positioned for coming fights over a renewable energy portfolio standard.  Last Session’s bill was H 1688, State Energy Office Funds, proposed to allocate $3 million for FY ’05-’06 to match federal funds available for renewable energy and energy efficiency projects. (Introducers: Reps. Marian McLawhorn, D-Grifton; Verla Insko, D-Chapel Hill; and Harrison. Committee: House Appropriations.)
    

7. Clean Cars:  H1460, Low Emission Vehicles/Funds, Rep. Martha Alexander (Mecklenburg-D), Rep. Becky Carney (Mecklenburg-D), Rep. Joe Hackney (Orange-D), Rep. Pricey Harrison (Guilford-D), in House Environment; S1006, Sen. Dan Clodfelter (Mecklenburg-D), in Senate Agriculture, Environment.  Adopts lower emission standards for new cars and light trucks sold in North Carolina.  All states must choose this year between federal car emissions standards and better standards adopted by California.  Adopting the ‘clean car’ standards would cut emissions of carcinogens from cars by roughly 14% more than the federal standards.

Second, the North Carolina State Democratic Party Executive Committee has, in turn, adopted these resolutions.  Therefore, the State Democratic Party has already adopted the resolutions above and they are part of the State Democratic Party’s platform.  

Third, the confusion for Democrats appears to be what to do now.  The simple answer is that rank and file Democrats across North Carolina need to generate the support necessary to convince their elected legislators to enact these progressive measures into law.  

Developing the support necessary to enact legislation is a multi-faceted effort.  Here are the basics: 

Write, call or talk with the Democrat legislators from your District.  Legislators are usually most responsive to voters from their own District.  Ask your Democrat legislator to support legislation.

 

Write letters to the editor.  Make the public aware of the need for legislation and ask citizens to contact their legislators, both Democrat and Republican.

 

Next, ask your precinct and county Democratic Party organizations to adopt resolutions calling on Democratic legislators to support legislation to enact the platform items above.  Part of the confusion among Democrats is the belief that the effort is to secure precinct, county and district resolutions to have the Party endorse the resolutions as a part of the Party’s platform.  The State Executive Committee, as noted above, has already taken that action.  The effort should now be directed to have our precinct, county and district organizations to call on Democratic legislators to enact legislation.

 

Finally, most Democrats are members of a number of civic organizations.  Some of those organizations may share support for one or more of the agenda items above.  Educate these organizations as to the need for legislation.  Consider asking those organizations to pass resolutions asking both Democrat and Republican legislators to enact the necessary legislation. 

In sum, it is all a matter of educating, advocating and organizing support.              

TAR HEEL DEM CELLAR