In our pre-election piece on the role of the economy in the 2006 elections, we argued that, despite the public's concern over the economy, neither party had advanced a credible vision for a prosperous 21^st-century economy that works for all Americans. We also argued that, in an era when the income gap between multimillionaires and the American middle class has grown exponentially, the Democratic Party's decision to ignore the issue is not only fiscally imprudent, but politically foolish. 

While the Democratic Party has neglected to make this trend a central point in its campaigns for several cycles now, it is not a dynamic that has escaped the notice of the American public. In 2006 . . . voters continued to express their dissatisfaction with Republican stewardship of the economy at the ballot box.  

Even a cursory read of the exit polls reveals a palpable--and overlooked--concern among the voting public over the direction of the American economy. . . .  Exit polls showed the economy competing with ethics and national security--and even besting Iraq--when voters were asked about the importance of the various issues in determining their vote for Congress. Eighty-two percent of Americans said the economy was either extremely important (39 percent) or very important (43 percent) in their vote for Congress. By comparison, 74 percent said corruption and ethics were either extremely important (41 percent) or very important (33 percent), and seventy-two percent said terrorism was either extremely (39 percent) or very important (33 percent). Sixty-seven percent indicated Iraq was either extremely (35 percent) or very important (32 percent) in their vote for Congress, while sixty-two percent said illegal immigration was either extremely important (30 percent) or very important (32 percent). And just fifty-seven percent said "values issues" were either extremely important (36 percent) or very important (21 percent).  

Public assessments of the economy since the election have not appreciably improved, with pessimism heavily influencing voters' perspectives. Voters believe the U.S. economy is in bad shape. Fifty-four percent of voters say the current state of the economy is "not good" or "poor". Just 6 percent rate the economy as "excellent" and another forty percent rate it as "good". (footnote omitted)  Moreover, roughly eight in ten Americans believe the nation's economy is getting worse (37 percent) or staying the same (42 percent). Just 19 percent believe the economy is getting better.  

The exit polls painted a sober picture of the American Dream in the 21^st century. Fully half of voters said they have just enough to get by and another 17 percent said they are falling behind. Less than one-third of voters (31 percent) said they were getting ahead financially. Not surprisingly, the nature of one's economic outlook closely informed voting preference; solid majorities of those who said they have just enough to get by or who said they are falling behind voted for the Democrat in the congressional elections (57 percent and 74 percent respectively). In contrast, nearly two-thirds of those voters who said they are getting ahead voted for the Republican (65 percent).  

Most sobering, the voting public also expressed pessimism in their outlook for the next generation. A 40-percent plurality said they expected life for the next generation of Americans to be worse than life today, 28 percent said about the same, and just 30 percent expected life for the next generation of Americans to be better than life today. These perceptions also heavily influenced the vote. Democrats won those who thought the next generation would be worse off (66 percent to 32 percent) or the same (52 percent to 46 percent). Republicans won the few who thought life would get better for the next generation (62 percent to 37 percent). It is worth noting that unreleased polling data we have analyzed shows that this theme--that the American Dream has been fundamentally violated--was a strong motivator for Democrats to turn out and vote, second only to turning out to vote to send a message to President Bush.

TPJ'S BUSH WATCH
		Approve	Trail Mo	Disapprove	No Opinion	Spread
L.A. Times/Bloomberg	12/8-11/06	42		56	2	-14
NBC/Wall Street Journal	12/8-11/06	34		61	5	-27
ABC/Washington Post	12/7-11/06	36		62	2	-26
CBS	12/8-10/06	31		63	6	-32
USA Today/Gallup	12/8-10/06	38		59	4	-21
Pew	12/6-10/06	32		57	11	-25
Newsweek	12/6-7/06	32		60	8	-28
CNN	12/5-7/06	37		57	6	-20
FOX/Opinion Dynamics	12/5-6/06	38		54	9	-16
AP-Ipsos	12/4-6/06	33		64	3	-31
WNBC/Marist RV	11/27 - 12/3/06	37		56	7	-19
		35.45	-0.97	59.00	5.73	-23.55
	2006
	November Avg	36.43	-1.07	58.00	5.50	-21.57
	October Avg	37.50	-3.42	57.11	5.36	-19.61
	Sept Avg	40.92	2.64	54.23	4.77	-13.31
	August Avg	38.29	0.59	57.14	4.64	-18.86
	July Avg	37.70	0.49	56.40	5.90	-18.70
	June Avg	37.21	3.05	56.79	5.93	-19.57
	May Avg	34.17	-1.58	60.33	5.91	-26.17
	April Avg	35.75	-1.35	57.75	6.82	-22.00
	March Avg	37.10	-2.54	57.30	5.80	-20.20
	February Avg	39.64	-2.42	55.21	5.23	-15.57
	January Avg	42.07	1.32	53.27	5.07	-11.20
	2005
	December Avg	40.75	2.83	54.25	6.33	-13.50
	November Avg	37.92	-1.93	56.46	6.09	-18.54
	October Avg	39.86	-1.46	55.07	5.58	-15.21
	Sept Avg	41.31	-1.91	53.75	4.81	-12.44
	August Avg	43.22	-2.38	52.33	4.33	-9.11
	July Avg	45.60	0.60	49.00	5.30	-3.40
	June Avg	45.00	-1.50	49.83	5.33	-4.83
	May Avg	46.50	-1.10	48.33	5.17	-1.83
	April Avg	47.60	-1.28	49.00	3.20