archived: 10 - 16 Dec, 2006 Back Next
UPDATED: December 14, 2006
SEN. JOHNSON
As TPJ goes to the webmaster on Wednesday for publication, Democrat Sen. Tim Johnson has been hospitalized with an undisclosed illness. First reports indicated Sen. Johnson had sustained a stroke. The latest report:
Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson of South Dakota was hospitalized after becoming disoriented Wednesday, weeks before his party is to take control of the Senate by a one-vote margin.
Johnson, who turns 60 on Dec. 28, was admitted to George Washington University Hospital with an undiagnosed illness, said a spokeswoman, Julianne Fisher.
She said, however, the senator did not suffer a stroke or heart attack. His office had said earlier it was a possible stroke.
Fisher said Johnson would undergo further tests at the hospital Wednesday night. She said his office did not plan any more updates on his condition until Thursday.
TPJ’s hopes are for Sen. Johnson’s full recovery.
THIRTY
Democrats have picked up another Republican held Congressional seat; -- Texas 23. Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, who finished 2nd in the November election to now former Congressman Bonilla, won the runoff election Tuesday 54% to 46%. The victory and the size of the victory shocked Democrats and Republicans.
Rodriquez’ victor means the final number of Democratic Party victories in Republican held seats rises form 29 to 30.
Prior to the election, the Congressional Quarterly framed the election thusly:
The outcome will determine whether the Republican Party will get a little holiday cheer at the end of their worst election campaign in many years, or get one last bitter taste of unexpected defeat.
It was “one last bitter taste of unexpected defeat” for Republicans and for pollster Survey USA. In another demonstrative lesson that scientific polling is not always “precise,” Survey USA’s last poll in this race predicted former Congressman Bonilla would win 51% to 47%.
This is another District in which Pres. Clinton stumped in the closing days of the campaign to rally GOTV. As one Texas blogger wrote:
Clinton gave a great speech, emphasizing the need to turn out the vote. It is all up to us, he said. Do we want to join the 29 districts that voted out the GOP and sent Democrats to Congress, or will we join the dozen or so districts that came up just short?
Prior to Clinton's arrival, former San Antonio mayor Henry Cisneros brought down the house. "I do not understand a man like Henry Bonilla, who grew up in this area, and yet has voted time and again and again against the interests of the people of this area. It's time to tell him, Ya basta! Ya acabo'! Ya vete!"
Texas Democrats did not come up short!
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THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WINNING AND LOSING
The differences between a Democratic Party majority in Congress and a Republican majority are profound. Some Congressional Republicans who supported Bush in lock step are increasingly demonstrating their new found “independence:”
President Bush, weakened by an unpopular war and the loss of Republican control in Congress, is now confronting disaffection within his own party that could complicate his attempt to set an agenda for his final two years in office.
As Republicans departed Capitol Hill over the weekend, some who used to dismiss Democratic attempts to investigate the administration as political posturing are now lining up behind calls for greater oversight of the executive branch.
They are advertising attacks on Bush's foreign policy that they once kept largely private. Last week, Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith not only made a speech calling the current war strategy "absurd" but sent out a news release publicizing his remarks.
Some longtime Bush allies, such as Texas Sen. John Cornyn, are adopting rhetoric used by Democrats to criticize the Iraq war.
And on other issues that will confront the new Congress in January -- including trade and judicial appointments -- Republican lawmakers are signaling their unwillingness to follow the White House.
"Frankly, I think there is a greater recognition and awareness of the necessity for us to exercise checks and balances," said Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, noting how much the Nov. 7 elections changed the climate on Capitol Hill.
"If there was a reluctance to express that in the past, there isn't anymore," Snowe said.
To be sure, no one is expecting a Republican abandonment of the president. But the disaffection marks a remarkable turnabout for a president whose command of his own party was once so supreme he virtually appointed the Senate majority leader, and GOP lawmakers openly acknowledged taking orders from the White House.
And it suggests that the Bush administration may have as much work repairing ties with Republicans as it does building new ones with the Democrats who will assume control of the House and Senate in January. . . .
The Bush administration's ability to win approval from a compliant legislative branch for tax cuts, foreign invasions and other initiatives was a source of awe.
In 2002, the president was widely seen as responsible for making Tennessee Republican Bill Frist Senate majority leader. . . .
House Republicans abandoned Bush over immigration. And in the Senate, some of the chamber's most respected GOP members stood up to the White House on Iraq and the prosecution of terrorist suspects. . . .
But since the elections, dissent has mushroomed.
And as the House and Senate prepare for what many expect to be heated debates next year over the course of U.S. policy in the Middle East, Republican lawmakers have stepped up their critiques of the war, directly challenging the White House in ways that used to be the province of Democrats.
There is no substitute for winning.
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LIPSTICK ON A PIG
The realization for Democrats is unmistakable. As discussed in today’s BUSH WATCH, STRATEGY: WEATHERING THE STORM, Bush intends to “stay the course” in Iraq. For Democrats, the options are few.
Congressional Democrats either capitulates to Bush’s strategy of staying the course in Iraq or exercises its control of the Federal budget process to end America’s involvement in the escalating civil war. To date, the Democratic Party leadership signifies that it will continue to provide the funds necessary for Bush’s strategy:
Top Democrats in Congress are ignoring calls from within their caucus to eliminate funding for troops in Iraq, a strategy some say is necessary to end U.S. involvement in the war.
"There is only one way in which the United States will withdraw from Iraq prior to the end of President Bush's term," said Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich, Ohio Democrat. "Congress must vote to cut off funds."
Democratic leaders flatly rejected the idea yesterday, insisting they will move to "change the course" of the war but will continue to appropriate money to support the troops fighting in Iraq. The Democrats won back the House and Senate leadership in large part with staunch opposition to the Iraq war, but many worry that cutting off funding would seem unpatriotic.
"My only real comment is you have to support the troops," incoming House Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton said about the Kucinich proposal. The Missouri Democrat initially supported the war but now wants gradual troop withdrawal.
Rep. Dennis Kucinich explains the opposition position:
I think this is going to be a serious test of the Democratic Party. We were put in power because people expected a new direction in Iraq. It goes without saying that they expect greater transparency and oversight, but they also expect us to do something to bring the troops home. Now, if Congress goes ahead under Democratic leadership and votes to approve what some are now estimating as an additional $160 billion for the war in Iraq, bringing the total for the fiscal year to $230 billion, the Democratic Congress will have bought George Bush’s war. Now, who would buy a used war from this administration?
Spencer Ackerman, of the American Prospect, cogently states the views of the dedicated progressive Democrats who have campaigned against Bush’s war:
The trouble is that the Iraq Study Group is ultimately providing false
hope for an extended war. Its assessment is appropriately bleak. For
example, "Key Shia and Kurdish leaders," the commission finds, "have little
commitment to national reconciliation." . . .
The most robust recommendation contained within "responsible transition" is
to deemphasize U.S. combat missions and increasingly emphasize the training
of Iraqi security forces. . . . Indeed, the most significant
recommendation in the report is the idea that by the "first quarter of 2008,
subject to unexpected developments in the security situation on the ground,
all combat brigades not necessary for force protection could be out of
Iraq." At first blush, it's a dramatic statement: In little more than a
year, Iraq won't be our war anymore.
But take a closer look. First, the commission isn't actually calling for
withdrawal; it's calling for a reorientation of military effort — troops
won't conduct combat missions, they'll just be helping Iraqi forces conduct
them. This is new lipstick on a very old pig. Despite what the commissioners
said at today's press conference, it's just a marginal tinkering with the
years-old strategy of "putting an Iraqi face" on security operations.
Second, the commissioners say that we "must not make an open-ended
commitment to keep large numbers of American troops deployed in Iraq." But
that's exactly what the commission's recommendation entails. . . .
Finally, it's unrealistic to suggest that with such a U.S. force in Iraq for
such an indefinite timeframe, forces won't respond to insurgent or
death-squad attacks if either directly fired upon or if their Iraqi
counterparts aren't up to the challenge. Indeed, if U.S. troops are in a
combat situation but are not positioned to respond as such, the Iraq Study
Group's wishful thinking -- and the Pentagon's — will put them in the worst
of all possible situations. . . .
The bottom line, the commission says rather aptly, is "there are many armed
groups within Iraq, and very little will to lay down arms." Put differently,
each side believes it has more to gain through war than through negotiation.
. . .
Where it goes wrong is in its recommendation that we should be actively
supporting an Iraqi political process that is hostage to such dysfunction
and sectarian chaos. After all, if none of the relevant actors within the
Iraqi government or in the political structure at large is interested in
peace, pressuring them to just make nice with one another isn't going to
work. . . .
Worse still, it's not even clear that the commission knows what it means by
"national reconciliation." The proposals go from vague to vaguer: a
constitutional "review"; a rollback of de-Baathification; the sharing of oil
wealth. . . .
Bush will have a very hard time recommitting the country to a chimerical
"victory" in Iraq. But in the name of "responsibility," thousands more will
die, for years and years, as the situation deteriorates further. Someone, at
sometime, will finally have to say "enough," and get the United States out.
. . .
Even more perplexing from TPJ’s view is the fact that Democrats have just won a national election in substantial part based on public repudiation of Bush’s war in Iraq. That repudiation is turning to outright anger as discussed in BUSHY CHRISTMAS below.
Congressional Democrats can and must do better than simply using the power of Congress to question Bush’s policy; they were elected to make it end. Indeed, if Democrats fail to stand up to this President, they will simply become the rouge that decorates the pig.
No Christmas cheer for Bush and the Republicans. Four polls are released to open December and Bush still struggles at 36% approval. The spread between approval and disapproval continues over -20%, a dismal performance. The December average approval rating is the 3rd lowest in the previous two years as reflected in TPJ’s average of publicly released polls immediately below.
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TPJ'S BUSH WATCH |
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Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
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CNN |
12/5-7/06 |
37 |
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57 |
6 |
-20 |
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FOX/Opinion Dyn |
12/5-6/06 |
38 |
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54 |
9 |
-16 |
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AP-Ipsos |
12/4-6/06 |
33 |
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64 |
3 |
-31 |
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WNBC/Marist RV |
11/27 - 12/3/06 |
37 |
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56 |
7 |
-19 |
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36.25 |
-0.18 |
57.75 |
6.25 |
-21.50 |
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2006 |
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November Average |
36.43 |
-1.07 |
58.00 |
5.50 |
-21.57 |
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October Average |
37.50 |
-3.42 |
57.11 |
5.36 |
-19.61 |
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September Average |
40.92 |
2.64 |
54.23 |
4.77 |
-13.31 |
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August Average |
38.29 |
0.59 |
57.14 |
4.64 |
-18.86 |
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July Average |
37.70 |
0.49 |
56.40 |
5.90 |
-18.70 |
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June Average |
37.21 |
3.05 |
56.79 |
5.93 |
-19.57 |
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May Average |
34.17 |
-1.58 |
60.33 |
5.91 |
-26.17 |
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April Average |
35.75 |
-1.35 |
57.75 |
6.82 |
-22.00 |
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March Average |
37.10 |
-2.54 |
57.30 |
5.80 |
-20.20 |
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February Average |
39.64 |
-2.42 |
55.21 |
5.23 |
-15.57 |
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January Average |
42.07 |
1.32 |
53.27 |
5.07 |
-11.20 |
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2005 |
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December Average |
40.75 |
2.83 |
54.25 |
6.33 |
-13.50 |
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November Average |
37.92 |
-1.93 |
56.46 |
6.09 |
-18.54 |
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October Average |
39.86 |
-1.46 |
55.07 |
5.58 |
-15.21 |
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September Average |
41.31 |
-1.91 |
53.75 |
4.81 |
-12.44 |
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August Average |
43.22 |
-2.38 |
52.33 |
4.33 |
-9.11 |
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July Average |
45.60 |
0.60 |
49.00 |
5.30 |
-3.40 |
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June Average |
45.00 |
-1.50 |
49.83 |
5.33 |
-4.83 |
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May Average |
46.50 |
-1.10 |
48.33 |
5.17 |
-1.83 |
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April Average |
47.60 |
-1.28 |
49.00 |
3.20 |
-1.40 |
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March Average |
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