MICHAEL CARMICHAEL

archived: 23 - 29 Apr, 2006         Back                 Next

                       THE DREAM TICKET? 

In the first serious analysis of the 2008 presidential race to appear in the mainstream international media, we are informed that the "dream ticket" for Washington's political classes is:  Clinton versus Rice.   

While I would never describe this match-up as my "dream ticket" it does seem to be becoming all the more likely - and virtually inevitable.   

In terms of polling, Hillary Clinton is far out in front of the Democratic pack.  With twenty million dollars in her war chest, she has a serious and healthy head start.   

John Kerry has a substantial war chest left over from his unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2004 said to total circa twelve million dollars.  While Kerry may decide to make the running, he will be only one of several men facing off against Hillary.  Today, Kerry received a mild boost when Senator Ted Kennedy confirmed that he would support him, "if he decides to run."   

One distinctive characteristic binds the current crop of Democratic hopefuls together:  their neoconservativism.  To date, of those who have made their intentions clearest about running for the Democratic nomination, all are doyens of the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC).  Bayh, Warner, Vilsack and Gore all have ties to the right-leaning DLC.  While Gore has made some recent efforts to appeal to a broader segment of the Democratic rank-and-file, the others are basically more conservative than the majority of the Party's activist base.  Bayh, Warner and Vilsack are all supporters of the war in Iraq and the Bush Doctrine of pre-emptive war.  Unlike Gore, they are all opponents of the Kyoto Protocols.  They endorse the neoconservative agenda driving America's deeply unpopular interventionist foreign policy.  So, too, does Hillary.   

At this point, the only candidate who is a slightly more progressive Democrat is Russ Feingold, and in a five or six candidate contest, he might well be in position to garner the same sort of grassroots momentum that drove the engines of Howard Dean's brilliant early campaign in 2003.  While the field is still far from closed, we might expect Dennis Kucinich or Barbara Boxer, true progressives, to get into the race to open up the debate.  The result could be surprising if they do join the field. 

The Republican field looks much worse.  John McCain is moving to the right - and he really did not have that far to move in the first place.  Frist and Allen will define the message for the neoconservative faithful, while the lone moderate in contention, Chuck Hagel, would simply be outgunned on the right - which is where all of the Republican activists can be found.  If Hagel makes the race, he will be swiftly sidelined as the Kucinich of the Republican Party. 

With decision time moving swiftly into focus, Condi Rice and Hillary Clinton - for reasons totally peculiar to themselves - appear to be headed for a presidential showdown in 2008. 

America will be faced with the choice between two neoconservative candidates, both women.  With Hillary moving to the right, and Condi moving to the left on "values" issues (abortion, stem-cells and gay rights) their positions on domestic policy will narrow down to abstruse economic issues.  Unless Hillary moves decisively to the left to advocate a national health service based on Medicare, she will have little to distinguish her from her tax-cutting opponent. 

In London's political circles, talk of Condi Rice's soaring presidential potential is rife.  Lord Levy, one of Tony Blair's major financiers, is known to be enamored of Rice's political capital and her undeniable neoconservative credentials.  Levy was able to spend time with Rice during her recent whirlwind visit to the North of England, when she and Foreign Secretary Jack Straw faced throngs of angry protestors in his home district which encouraged them to abandon their schedule prematurely and flee to Baghdad on Condi's jumbo jet. 

There can be little doubt that Hillary also enjoys the support of neoconservative ideologues in control of large reservoirs of political capitol.  

At this point - and it is still early - the 2008 presidential race is shaping up to be a showdown between Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dee.   

The only way to open it up will be for the people of America to just say, "No, thank you.  We think it is time for a change." 

REFERENCE 

Off and running - the presidential hopefuls / The world may have changed dramatically but Clinton v Rice remains the dream ticket for Washington's political classes / Julian Borger and Suzanne Goldenberg in Washington / Saturday April 22, 2006

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1758853,00.html 

Michael Carmichael has been a professional public affairs consultant, author and broadcaster since 1968. In 2003, he founded The Planetary Movement, a global nonprofit public affairs organization based in the United Kingdom. He has appeared as a public affairs expert on the BBC's Today Programme, Hardtalk, PM, as well as numerous appearances on ITN, NPR and many European broadcasts examining politics and culture. He can be reached through his website: www.planetarymovement.org