archived: 9 - 15 Apr, 2006         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  April 13, 2006 

                        NO TSUNAMI, BUT A WAVE?   

If Democrats believe that Bush’s faltering approval ratings and the corruption of Congressional Republicans will create a Democratic tsunami in November, the results in two elections on Tuesday should inject a starker reality. 

In California District 50 on Tuesday a special election was conducted to fill disgraced former Republican Congressman Duke Cunningham’s seat. California 50 is a solid Republican performing District comprised of parts of San Diego and surrounding suburbs.  Republican control of this District is reflected in these numbers: 

Bush won the District in 2004 with 55%
Bush won the District in 2000 with 54%
Dole won the District in 1996 with 55%
Former Democrat Governor Gray Davis lost the District in 1998 and 2002.
Voter registration: 44% Republican; 30% Democratic and 22% Independents.  

The special election pitted 14 Republicans and 2 Democrats, the leading Democrat being Francine Busby, who had challenged Cunningham in 2004.  Busby garnered 37% of the vote in that race with virtually no support from national Democrats or allied interest groups.  

On Tuesday, Busby garnered 43.92% of the vote, with absentee ballots yet to be counted.  Kerry’s vote in the district was 43.4% of the vote.   

Voter turn out Tuesday was approximately 137,000.  That is compared to a 2002 voter turn out of about 160,000 and a 2004 voter turn out of 290,000. 

In Pennsylvania Tuesday, Democrat Shawn Flaherty barley won; 5,545 to 5,43, a State House Race in District 30, which had been held by Republicans for 40 years.   The Republican holding the office had to resign after a scandal.  Several critical factors are cited in the victory: 

Turn out was considered high for the race;

Flaherty stressed property tax reform, which is apparently a major issue in the District;

Flaherty had a developed grass roots campaign.  “[G]rass roots coordinator, Marty Marks, said his candidate did well throughout the district, where Democrats hold a slight voter registration edge despite the district's history of voting Republican. ‘We performed better than Democrats normally perform everywhere, throughout the district,’ he said.”  

For Democrats predicting a national tsunami; the special elections in California 50 and Pennsylvania House District 30 suggest it is simply non-existent – today.  It is obvious that voters in either district did not outright reject the Republican Party on a massive scale.  Busby did not outperform Sen. Kerry and Flaherty’s victory was by the narrowest margin.   

TPJ believes that the results in California 50 and Pennsylvania indicate that there has been a small but perceptible shift toward Democrats.  In California 50, Busby certainly improved on her 2004 performance by some 6%.  In Pennsylvania House District 30, Democrats did sufficiently well to capture the District, with a Democratic Party advantage in voter registration, but only narrowly.  

Under California law, Busby will face a runoff against the leading Republican candidate, former Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray.  Most political observers believe that Busby, now facing a single Republican challenger, will face a difficult fight to actually win the District.  Perhaps the most valuable lesson for Democrats from both special elections held on Tuesday is that the Party simply must start changing the minds of voters at the local level.  It will require organization, and effective plan, and the commitment to the arduous task of rebuilding a Party from the ground up. 

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                        Déjà Vu – ALL OVER AGAIN  

April polling starts where March polling ended – Bush continues his gradual slide in the polls.  Bush’s approval rating is the lowest that TPJ has measured and those disapproving of Bush’s handling of the Presidency are the highest recorded.  To complete the trifecta, the spread between approval and disapproval has reached its highest level recorded by TPJ.   

As one would suspect with Bush’s low ratings, the vast majority of Americans believe that the US is headed in the wrong direction: 

One would conclude from the surveys above that Congressional Democrats would be soaring in the polls.  Quite the contrary as the poll results generally indicate: 

The public perception of the Democratic Party leaders in Congress is virtually the same for both Parties.  The message appears very simple; Democrats in Congress have not effectively distinguished themselves from the failing Republican leadership.

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                        ON THE GROUND 

Politics is a contact enterprise – on the ground, where it happens. 

Democrats who wonder what they can do to stem the radical Republican tide threatening constitutional democracy can take inspiration from Wisconsin.  

The 24 Wisconsin communities that voted to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq are generating interest in getting the issue before other voters in a movement that could grow beyond the state, an organizer of the referendums and a political expert said Wednesday.

Rachel Friedman, a spokeswoman for the Wisconsin Network for Peace and Justice, said there's even talk of trying to put the issue to a statewide referendum.

"We have had a number of calls already from people, saying we want to do this in our town or city for November," she said in a telephone interview from Madison. "We have had seven so far today. If they want to have it, we will help them make it happen."

Bruce Cain, a University of California, Berkeley political scientist, said Wisconsin could be at the forefront of a nationwide trend if frustration about the war continues to swell and the existing policy doesn't change or become more successful.

"The significance is these are the unadulterated voices of the people," he said.

"It has a higher level of authority. It makes politicians very nervous when people

do these things spontaneously. You could see more."

By margins overwhelming in some places and narrow in others, voters in 24 of 32 Wisconsin communities approved referendums Tuesday calling for the immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. In most of those communities, referendum organizers, mostly associated with Wisconsin's Green Party, gathered enough signatures on petitions to put the issue before voters.                       

Not all states permit referendums.  But, Democrats should pass resolutions at every level of the Party, send those resolutions to their elected leaders at every level and release them to the press for publication.  Democrats should also work with every community, civic and religious organization to pass resolutions of their own. 

As Wisconsin may well prove, if rank and file Democrats set the expectations, our leaders will follow our lead.

NEXT- MICHAEL CARMICHAEL

Last Update: 04/15/2006