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archived: 2 - 8 Oct, 2005 Back Next TPJ’S SWEET 16 The 2006 election is already underway. Today, TPJ looks at the State House of Representatives for 2006 and offers a plan for retaining the State House and even expanding its narrow majority of three seats; 63-57. It is TPJ’s SWEET 16. In 2004, the Democratic Party recaptured the NC State House from Republicans by winning 63 of 120 seats. Click on the hyperlink in the TAR HEEL DEM CELLAR (below) for a detailed analysis of how Democrats forged a winning majority. In an election year where Democrats did not fare well in the South and North Carolina Democrats lost races for federal offices, recapturing the State House was a welcomed event. North Carolina is one of approximately seven states in which Democrats control both legislative chambers. While the North Carolina Democratic Party appears impressive on its surface, closer examination suggests that the actual margins leading to that majority were razor thin. In the final analysis, the Democratic Party won control of the State House by a mere 2,642 votes in four districts. That is 2,642 votes cast out of some 2,994,751 votes cast for all candidates. A razor thin margin of victory indeed! Also consider that in the total vote for all Democrat and Republican State House candidates, Republicans won. Democrats received 1,384,185 votes statewide compared with Republicans who obtained 1,553,996 statewide. From this context, the Democratic Party victory was exceedingly surprising. Ultimately, the Democratic Party fashioned a majority from three primary factors. They are: (1) the internecine split within the Republican Party over a small group of Republicans (known as the Morgan Faction) who joined with Democrats to form a bipartisan sharing of power in the previous General Assembly; (2) Republicans mysteriously failed to field candidates in several “swing” Districts; and (3) the Democratic Party House Caucus ran a well financed, smart campaign to focus on Districts needed to elect a majority. The first priority in 2006 is to hold majority control, winning every District won in 2004. There are seven Districts that the Democrats will have to heavily defend. They are:
The second priority is picking up seats. Democrats have a very realistic probability of picking up four Districts that Republicans won in 2004. They are:
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