archived: 20 - 26 Nov, 2005         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  11 25 05                       

                        “PURPLE DEMOCRATS”

TPJ has discussed the effect of Bush’s fall in public approval.  There are three major perspectives.  First, TPJ has made a point repeatedly that the question is not Bush personally as Bush cannot seek reelection.  However, as Bush poll numbers fall Democrats will have more opportunities to block some of the worst of Bush’s legislative agenda.  Second, Bush will not personally be an asset for Republicans in the 2006 or 2008 elections.   Third, can Bush’s failures transcend to the Republican Party generally, to help elect Democrats in 2006?

The Christian Science Monitor has published an article by Gail Russell Chaddock that focuses on the effect of Bush’s fall in support as it effects his radical legislative agenda.

In a major shift aimed at the 2006 midterm elections, House Democrats are suddenly closing ranks on big votes, forcing an embattled Republican leadership to eke out victories, where they can, on their own.

On three big votes recently - the energy bill, the FY 2006 Labor, Health and Human Services (HHS) and Education spending bill, and a budget reconciliation bill aimed at $49.5 billion in spending cuts - not a single Democrat voted with Republicans.

It's a sea change from votes as recent as last spring. Back then, 73 Democrats backed a bankruptcy bill that their leader Nancy Pelosi said would create "modern-day indentured servants." Fifty of them supported GOP efforts to reform class-action lawsuits. And 42 voted for a permanent repeal of the estate tax, dubbed "reverse Robin Hood" by Ms. Pelosi.

"The single biggest development of the year has been in the last few weeks: The decision by Democratic House moderates to align themselves and their futures with Pelosi and [Democratic whip Steny] Hoyer," says Michael Franc, vice president for governmental relations at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank.

In political shorthand, it means that so-called purple Democrats are voting blue, making it tougher for the GOP controlled House to pass its agenda. The new unity in Democratic ranks also exposes more Republican moderates to tough votes that could hurt them in their districts.

Forty-one House Democrats come from districts that President Bush carried in 2004, compared with only eight Republicans in districts that John Kerry won. The result: Purple Democrats, some of whom campaigned on their ties to Mr. Bush in 2004, have had to worry about reprisals when they voted against the White House.

With Bush's sagging approval ratings, that anxiety is much less of a concern, say analysts.

"Democrats have become more disciplined in making the case against Republicans," says Amy Walter, who analyzes House elections for the Cook Political Report.

"When the political environment is such as it is today, it makes it easier for Democrats to be able to stick together. Aligning yourself with the president is not the asset it was last year or two or three years ago," she adds.

That same logic is putting pressure on Republican moderates to distance themselves from an unpopular president on issues such as tax cuts, social spending, and the environment. Without the votes of purple Democrats, House GOP leaders now have to pay more attention to the demands of moderates in their own caucus.

House moderates last week forced the GOP leadership to drop drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) as a price for support of the FY 2006 Budget Reconciliation bill, which passed on a 217-215 vote. And, in a move that stunned House Republican leaders, GOP moderates joined Democrats in voting down the FY 2006 Labor-HHS-Education Appropriations bill - the first time a conference report has been defeated in the House in a decade.

"If this trend continues, it suggests a very different 2006," says Mr. Franc. "If Republicans enter the year on the working assumption that they're not going to pick up any meaningful support on the Democratic side on anything, they're going to have to figure out whether to lean toward the middle to get the bulk on board, or get into a Lord-of-the-Flies situation where they start tossing each other off the cliff."

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UPDATED:  November 22, 2005 

                        STONE BUSH 

Bush’s polling numbers, as documented in articles below, continue to reach new lows.  TPJ has made a point repeatedly that the question is not Bush personally as Bush cannot seek reelection.  Bush’s poll numbers matter from three perspectives.  First, as Bush poll numbers fall Democrats will have more opportunities to block some of the worst of Bush’s legislative agenda.  Second, Bush will not personally be an asset for Republicans in the 2006 or 2008 elections.   

Third, can Bush’s failures transcend to the Republican Party generally, to help elect Democrats in 2006? TPJ’s initial reaction to the recent off-year elections is that Democrats had a good night, but there was no sign of collapse of the Republican Party. 

In an article below, TPJ noted that a Democrat has just won a Missouri state legislative seat in a historically Republican district.  Anecdotally, Democrats who went door-to-door in that campaign reported that moderate Republicans were telling the canvassers that they had had enough of Bush. 

The New Jersey Ledger has just issued a poll in the aftermath of the election of Democrat Gov. Corzine.  Their polling results, polling voters before and after the election, suggests that Bush’s fall in support is having a generalized effect.  Consider these findings from the poll (emphasis added): 

Corzine won 87 percent of the Democratic vote, 57 percent of the female vote and 79 percent of the nonwhite vote. Forrester carried 83 percent of the Republican vote but did not carry any other demographic vote and only split the independent vote with Corzine.

Forty percent of voters said Forrester’s association with President Bush affected their vote choice. Of that number, 70 percent voted for Corzine.

Thirty-eight percent of the sample identified themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans and 34 percent as independent voters. The 10-point gap between Democrats and Republicans exceeds those found in exit polls from previous gubernatorial races in 2001, 1997, and 1993. “Corzine had a major success in turning out his base in a historically low turnout race,” Edelman observed. 

Democrats can draw two conclusions from the Star-Ledger poll.  First, Bush was a factor in the race, but not the predominant factor.  Second, it appears that Bush and the Republicans stirred Democratic Party voter turnout and Democrat Corzine won those “inspired” Democrats by a wider margin than Republican Forrester won Republicans (87% to 83%).   

This poll suggests, but is certainly not conclusive, that Bush’s leadership is starting to have an impact on down ballot races.  Democrats need to “nurse” these trends and expand on them during the next year.

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                        DEMS ATTACK 

House Minority Leader Pelosi led the attack on Republican cuts in the federal budget aimed at middle class and lower socio economic citizens.  Her presentation on the floor of the House was succinct and poignantly depicted Republican economic policy.  Here are the critical excerpts (emphasis added): 

"Mr. Speaker, tonight the Republicans are launching an attack on America's children, America's families, and America's middle class.  All of this to give a tax cut to the wealthiest people in our country.  This budget is a sham and it's a shame.  Democrats believe that together, America can do better.

"The National Council of Churches USA has written to every Member of Congress and carefully dissected this budget, and this is what they say: 'The role of government is to protect its people and work for the common good.  This is not the time for a budget reconciliation process.  To do so is not only unjust, it's a sin.  It violates all the fundamental Christian principles of loving thy neighbor, caring for the poor and showing mercy.  As religious leaders this is a violation that is unacceptable to us.  How is it that we show mercy for oil millionaires and not hurricane survivors?  We urge you to change this destructive course of action for the sake of our nation and for generations to come.'

"My Democratic colleagues have eloquently made an indictment against this budget, which is immoral because it contains more than $70 billion in tax cuts mostly for America's wealthiest and decimates the very programs that millions of middle-class Americans rely upon to get ahead.

"As the number of people without health insurance has increased for four years in a row, Republicans are charging ahead with $45 billion in cuts to Medicaid - the health insurance program that provides medical care to America's poorest children and many of the survivors of Hurricane Katrina.

"Republicans give new meaning to the words, 'suffer little children.'  As the number of people in America who go to sleep hungry because they cannot afford to buy food has increased by 7 million people in the past 5 years of the Bush Administration, Republicans are slashing food assistance to America's poor children.  Republicans are slashing funding for preventative services and foster care for abused and neglected children, when more help, not less, is needed.  Republicans are drastically reducing funding for the child support enforcement program, which could result in $24 billion in reduced child support from delinquent dads to their children.

"The Republicans are taking food out of the mouths of children to give tax cuts to America's wealthiest.  This is not a statement of America's values.  Democrats believe that together, America can do better." 

Rep. Pelosi made the critical points.  Note that her presentation blends not only policy but values; including several direct references to religious values.  

TPJ will also note that Rep. Pelosi is working the anticipated Democratic Party mantra for 2006; “Together, America can do better,” into her speech.  Junkie recently met a policy advisor to Rep. Pelosi.  The aide indicated that initial polling on the democratic theme was very positive. 

Rep. Pelosi’s speech is a clear indication that Congressional Democrats are emerging to provide a vocal opposition to Bush and the radical Republicans.  Her floor presentation is also a clear sign that Democrats are going to directly engage the Republicans on what values are truly those of a democratic republic. 

TPJ KUDOS to Minority Leader Pelosi.   

                        THE LONG GOODBYE 

Bush’s polling numbers have been falling since January 2005 and November is no exception.  TPJ’s chart below, compiled from Survey USA’s most recent polling, documents Bush’s long goodbye in public support. 

These major points emerge from the polling: 

Bush has an approval rating of 50%+ in only four states: Idaho, Mississippi, Utah and Wyoming.

In November, Bush’s disapproval rating exceeds his approval rating by 10%+ in 37 states. In 22 states, Bush’s disapproval rating exceeds his approval rating by more than 20%+. 

Since May 2005, TPJ’s baseline month, Bush’s approval rating has improved in only one state, Utah.   

The size and scope of these unfavorable trends represent fundamental changes in public perceptions of Bush.