Them Dems

Three new polls released in November and Bush’s numbers continue to fall; Bush’s approval rating reaching a new low and Bush’s disapproval rating reaching a new high in TPJ’s poll tracking. Without doubt, the indictment of Scooter Libby and the revelations surrounding the attempt to destroy Valerie Plame as political retribution has taken a distinct toll on Bush’s administration.

		Approve	Trail Mo	Disapprove	No Opinion	Spread

AP-Ipsos *	10/31 - 11/2/05	37.00		59.00	1.00
ABC/Wpo	10/30 - 11/2/05	39.00		60.00	8.00
CBS	10/30 - 11/1/05	35.00		57.00	4.50
	November Average	37.00	-2.86	58.67	4.50	-21.67


	October Average	39.86	-1.46	55.07	5.58	-15.21
	September Average	41.31	-1.91	53.75	4.81	-12.44
	August Average	43.22	-2.38	52.33	4.33	-9.11
	July Average	45.60	0.60	49.00	5.30	-3.40
	June Average	45.00	-1.50	49.83	5.33	-4.83
	May Average	46.50	-1.10	48.33	5.17	-1.83
	April Average	47.60	-1.28	49.00	3.20	-1.40
	March Average	48.88	-1.13	46.00	5.13	2.88
	February Average	50.00	-1.00	46.29	3.71	3.71
	January Average	51.00		44.71	4.00	6.29

The impact of the Plame investigation is evident by the significant drop in Bush’s approval rating. On a trailing month basis (Trail Mo), Bush has initially lost more support than in any previous month of the year. The spread between approval and disapproval has grown more (6.46%) than in any previous month; July to August rating second (5.71%).

Polling numbers such as these generate headlines and news stories such as this one:

GOP Leaders to Bush: 'Your Presidency is Effectively Over'

By DOUG THOMPSON
Nov 4, 2005, 08:13
A growing number of Republican leaders, party strategists and political professional now privately tell President George W. Bush that his presidency "is effectively over" unless he fires embattled White House advisor Karl Rove, apologizes to the American people for misleading the country into war and revamps his administration from top to bottom.

"The only show of unity we have now in the Republican Party is the belief that the President has failed the party, the American people and the presidency," says a longtime, and angry, GOP strategist.

With the public face of support for Bush eroding daily from even diehard Republicans, the President faces mounting anger from within his party over the path that may well lead to loss of control of Congress in the 2006 midterm elections and the White House in 2008.

"This presidency is in trouble," says a senior White House aide. "Even worse, I don't know if there is a way out of the trouble."

Congressional leaders journeyed to the White House before Bush left on his South American tour this week to tell the President that his legislative agenda on the Hill is dead, his latest Supreme Court nominee faces a tough confirmation fight in the Senate and he is facing open revolt within party ranks.

"The Speaker is having an increasingly difficult time holding his troops in line," says a source within the office of House Speaker Dennis J. Hastert. "Anger at the President grows exponentially with each passing day."

Such headlines and stories contain a great deal of hype. Two perspectives prove the point. First, the article above would suggest that Bush’s legislative agenda is dead. Is that true? Hardly, as within the past two weeks Congressional Republicans passed substantial cuts to health care, food stamps and other social programs.

Second, as TPJ goes to press this Tuesday morning New Jersey and Virginia will elect governors today. Both seats are held by Democrats but are “open.” Polling in both races project both races are very close, Virginia closer that New Jersey. The polls certainly do not portend that Bush’s failing support transcends to these races to any great degree. Of course, Tuesday night will provide more guidance on what impact Bush may or may not be having.

Democrats should never forget that the Republicans are building their Party as a “brand.” Think of the Republican Party as a popular computer maker; say Microsoft. You order a Microsoft product that does not work properly. Microsoft Public Relations apologizes and customer support deftly replaces the defective product with one that does. People keep buying the brand.

Every Democrat should read and reread the article below detailing how the Republicans recaptured majority dominance in Ohio. They build on issues as well as candidates; they build infrastructure; they employ state of the art voter registration and GOTV tactics and when a candidate “slips,” they find another and move forward. See the article immediately below for just one example.

Sen. John McCain is actively exploring a bid for the Presidency in 2008. McCain, within Republican circles, is certainly conservative, but he has never been known for the radical right conservatism which has become the Republican “brand.”

TPJ readers should recall that McCain’s last bid for the Republican nomination was haunted by the fact that McCain was not viewed as sufficiently conservative by the radical religious right. Sen. McCain, in several recent moves, is taking on the Republican brand.

Sen. John McCain is taking action to make it hard for conservatives to write him off in the 2008 presidential race. His office confirms that the maverick moderate recently met with the Rev. Jerry Falwell, a conservative icon who is influential with voters on the right. Also, as McCain prepares a campaign-style trip to South Carolina, critical in the 2008 GOP primaries, a key ally is putting himself in the good graces of conservatives. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham is winning kudos from conservatives for backing Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito, raising his stature in the state and maybe even making his 2008 endorsement the key to victory. And should McCain win the state that derailed his 2000 bid, Graham would vault to the top of the veep list, say insiders. – US News

McCain’s second move; support a constitutional amendment to ban same sex marriages. This from the amendment’s leader:

I met with Sen. John McCain at his Phoenix office today along with several members of the Protect Marriage Arizona coalition to receive his endorsement of the amendment. At the meeting Sen. McCain presented a petition to PMA chair Lynn Stanley with his signature and the signatures of others. Sen. McCain then signed the back of the petition as a petition circulator. He also issued a strong statement of support for marriage as the union of a man and a woman and urged Arizonans to support PMA in a press release issued this afternoon by PMA. While we and other conservatives have had some public differences with Sen. McCain in recent years, we are thrilled to have his endorsement for the state marriage amendment. Sen. McCain’s bipartisan appeal and his strong endorsement of PMA will enhance the measure’s appeal to many Arizonans. In the next few days, he is likely to be heavily criticized by members of the homosexual community and challenged to abandon his support of the amendment. Please take a moment right now to express your gratitude to Sen. McCain for his decision to sign and endorse the PMAA. You can call his office locally at 602-952-2410 or 520-670-6334 or email him using his webform. – Pam’s House Blend

McCain, who was a vocal opponent of the Federal Marriage Amendment, was a man who I thought wouldn't sell his soul to the far right to get elected. Apparently, he is just another Republican beholden to the radical right.

Senator McCain, I hope you haven't forgotten what these people did to you in SC in 2000. You can guarantee they will do it again in 2008, and this time this blogger wont feel bad for you. Shame on you Senator McCain.

The Republican brand is radical religious right; it is one product line only. McCain, in order to become president, simply has to be branded.

Bush’s poll numbers are in the tank, CBS reporting an approval rating of 35% this week, the lowest Bush approval rating during his administration. Democrats are openly talking of the possibilities of regaining majority status in the US Senate and House.

As Republicans are wondering what has happened to their Party, which in January 2005 was hailing the birth of a “permanent majority,” Democrats, whose fortunes appear to be rising, seem to have forgotten the cruel lessons of the 2000 and 2004 General Elections. The National Republican Party is more highly organized and professional in sustaining itself than the Democratic Party.

It is critical for Democrats not to lose sight of two facts. No Democratic Party candidate for President has received a majority of the national vote in over 30 years. Second, the Democratic Party is not truly a national Party today. TPJ explored this reality in NOT A NATIONAL PARTY.

First, Democratic Party assumptions that increasing voter registration and turn out in 2004 would lead to a victory was wrong as demonstrated by the 2004 national vote totals.

		2004		2000		Difference
			%		%
Bush	Rep	60,605,282	51	50,456,169	48%	10,149,113
Kerry	Dem	57,284,783	48	50,996,116	48%	6,288,667
		3,320,499		-539,947		3,860,446

More Americans than ever turned out to vote; but Republicans increased their 2004 turn out over 2000 by 10,149,113 votes while Democrats increased their total from 2000 by only 6,288,667.

Second, Republicans carried every State of the Confederacy and the two “border States.” Carrying these 13 States and narrowing the margins of defeat in New York, New Jersey and California accounted for most of the Republican difference.

Third, Republicans increased their 2004 margins of support relative to the Democrats in 38 states. Sen. Kerry increased the Democratic margin of support from 2000 compared to the Republicans in only 12 states and the District of Columbia as listed below:

The point, again, is that Republicans have worked diligently over the years to build the Party infrastructure to achieve these results.

Some Democrats are convinced that Republicans “stole” the election in Ohio. The attention to the possibility of the “theft” of Ohio has obscured discussion of more fundamental reasons why Republicans won Ohio. The Toledo Blade has published a fascinating article detailing the 15 year effort of Republicans to become the dominant force in Ohio.

These excerpts (emphasis added) from the Toledo Blade article outline the Republican vision and dedication that led to Republican victories:

A decade before George W. Bush pinned "Pioneer" status on his top presidential fund-raisers, Ohio Republicans [recruited] 10 men who raised at least $100,000 each for George Voinovich's 1990 campaign for governor.
The businessmen and lobbyists . . . went on to wield enormous influence during Mr. Voinovich's two terms in office.
The success of Mr. Voinovich's $8.7 million campaign, along with Republican Bob Taft's $2.7 million bid for secretary of state, ignited a political machine that would dominate Ohio for the next 15 years - and nurture a network of donors who helped Mr. Bush win the state's wallet and votes in 2004.
"George Bush comes to Ohio and inherits that very powerful Republican infrastructure to help him, and John Kerry comes to Ohio and inherits a very weak Democrat infrastructure," said Mark Weaver, a Republican consultant who has worked on Ohio campaigns since 1990. "In a race that was otherwise pretty much even, that was a factor." . . .
Democrats ruled the 1980s in Ohio. By decade's end, they held both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide executive posts - including the governor's office - and the state House of Representatives. They also controlled the political cash flow, led by powerful House Speaker Vern Riffe. Jo Ann Davidson, a Republican leader in the House, said Mr. Riffe could raise more at his annual birthday party than she could in a year.
The state Republican Party owed more than $680,000 to creditors when Mr. Bennett won its reins in 1988.
Republican leaders from the era say the party needed two things to compete statewide: better funding and more favorable legislative districts. . . .
[The Republican Party Chairman] began by enlisting W.R. "Tim" Timken, Jr., a Canton businessman, as the party finance chairman. Mr. Timken erased the debt by the end of 1988, thanks, Mr. Bennett said, to large donations from big donors flush from the presidential victory of George H. W. Bush.
With elections looming in 1990, Mr. Bennett focused his resources: By winning at least two of the three races for governor, auditor, and secretary of state, he knew Republicans would be able to redraw the legislative and congressional map to favor their candidates and notch a foothold of power. . . .
The party secured $1.4 million in bank loans to help Mr. Taft, Mr. Bennett said; Mr. Voinovich agreed to help repay the money. The campaigns' list of big contributors foreshadows Mr. Bush's Pioneers by a decade and a half. It includes Carl Lindner, Jr., Alex Arshinkoff, Mr. Timken, and Bill DeWitt, along with Mercer Reynolds, who would direct fund-raising nationally for the President's re-election campaign.
Press reports criticized Mr. Bennett for ignoring other races. Mr. Voinovich and Mr. Taft's wins vindicated him.
[Republicans won in 1990 and] controlled the apportionment pen. They paired more favorable legislative lines with an increased focus on candidate recruitment.
The party had centralized its legislative campaigns after years of letting candidates run individually.
Ms. Davidson signed promises of party support - polling, staff, ads - and peddled them to prospective candidates; party leaders flew the hopefuls to Washington to meet then-President Bush.
Recruiters scored their first great coup in 1990. A tobacco farmer named Doug White, lured into the race by persistent GOP leaders and backed by a party-funded campaign manager, defeated one of Mr. Riffe's top allies in the House, the Democratic chairman of the rules committee.
"There was a real effort to go out and find the person who should be running," said Joe King, who managed Mr. White's campaign and now works as a Republican consultant in Columbus, "instead of the person who was next in line."
The work paid off in 1994, when, bolstered by the national "Republican Revolution," GOP candidates swept to a majority in the Ohio House. Ms. Davidson became speaker.
"Superior message, superior people, and when you are in the majority, it is a lot easier to raise money," said Jeff Ledbetter, who joined the Ohio GOP as treasurer and now is Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell's fund-raiser.
Mr. Bennett was an "evangelist" who preached, "What's good for corporations is good for Ohio" to business leaders - and future Bush money men - said Andy Douglas, then a Republican justice on the Ohio Supreme Court whose pro-trial lawyer and pro-union decisions infuriated GOP leaders.
The GOP chairman's flock of donors included Mr. Lindner; Mr. Timken; Richard Farmer, chairman of Cintas, which sells uniforms, restroom supplies, and other goods to businesses; and Akron industrialist David Brennan, whom the state has paid more than $250 million to operate charter schools. All were future Bush Pioneers.
"They appoint people, they give out contracts, they have leverage that their opposition doesn't possess," Mr. Douglas said of the Republican lawmakers who had taken over the Statehouse.
"Included in that is, frankly, a fear factor. It's either play our way or be ostracized. That's the power."
Republicans have now surpassed the Democrats' 1980s dominance, controlling both legislative chambers, the state Supreme Court, and the congressional delegation - by a 12-6 margin.
They have swept the last three statewide elections for executive posts.
In 1988 and 1989, the Ohio Republican Party was unable to crack a $250,000 balance, according to filings with the secretary of state.
By 1991, the party reported donations of $2.04 million, including at least $160,000 from Mr. Timken and his family.
Democrats say state finance reports don't reflect the GOP's full fund-raising power.
David Leland, who was chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party from 1995 to 2002, said the major difference in how the two parties raised money in the 1990s was the huge amount of money that flowed into the Ohio Republican Party's secret operating account.
A loophole in Ohio's campaign finance laws permitted unlimited contributions to a party operating account. Those donations and expenditures never had to be disclosed.
The party steadily built its base of small donors in the 1990s through improved direct-mail and telemarketing, Mr. King said. Several other GOP leaders from that time say power opened larger pocketbooks.
"Donors want to deal with the people who are affecting public policy," said Rex Elsass, the state Republican executive director in the early 1990s.
"There's no magic to it - that's what it is." . . .
The Bush campaign also tapped a new vein of donors who had given little or nothing to state Republicans. They were largely Christian conservatives from the Cincinnati area. . . .
Equally important, Republicans and Democrats say, the campaign plugged into a state GOP organization that dwarfed its Democratic counterpart. County parties had sophisticated voter-tracking systems. A stable of statewide leaders waited to deploy as surrogates or warm-up acts for the President whenever he visited.
Bob Paduchik, the Bush-Cheney campaign manager in Ohio, said the state GOP and the campaign worked "seamlessly."
In the 2000 primary and general election, Ohio backers of Bush-Cheney made 600,000 phone calls to potential voters. Last year 450,000 calls were made just on Election Day, Mr. Paduchik said.
Republicans delivered Ohio to Mr. Bush by a slim 120,000 votes. Its 20 electoral votes sealed his re-election. . . .
Democrats may be eager to spin scandals into electoral success, other Republicans said, but the GOP machine hasn't died yet

Sen. Minority Leader Reid’s dramatic invocation of Rule 21 to emphasize the Congressional Republicans’ failure to investigate the intelligence failures that led to war is producing positive results. First, Sen. Reid’s strategy demonstrated that Republicans, who came to office with a promise to “restore” integrity in government, do not, themselves, have the integrity to investigate the fabrications that led to war.

Second, AfterDowningStreet.org commissioned Zogby to undertake polling on the issue of Bush’s impeachment. The results demonstrate that Americans expect answers from the Republicans:

By a margin of 53% to 42%, Americans want Congress to impeach President Bush if he lied about the war in Iraq . . . .

76% of Democrats favored impeachment, compared to 50% of Independents and 29% of Republicans.

70% of those 18-29 favored impeachment, 51% of those 31-49, 50% of those 50-64, and 42% of those over 65.

Among African Americans, 90% favored impeachment, compared to 67% of Hispanics, and 46% of whites.

Majorities of Catholics, Jews, Muslims, and Others favored impeachment, while 49% of Protestants and 46% of Born Again Christians did so.

Majorities favored impeachment in the East (53%), West (56%), and Central states (58%), but not the South (43%).

Third, Sen. Reid’s use of Rule 21 keeps Republican policies that led to war and the fabrication of the reasons for going to war in public focus. In the daily grind of political developments, there is a natural tendency to focus on the immediate events and questions. Democrats must keep the focus on the critical question of how Republicans led this country to war.

Fourth, Americans should not expect the Republican Party to engage in any meaningful investigation. As Sen. Reid correctly commented prior to making his Rule 21 Motion, Senate Republicans, who promised an investigation, have drug their feet for well over a year without taking any meaningful action to even start the investigation.

The recalcitrance of the Senate Republicans may well be explained by the Zogby and other polls. CBS questioned Americans on whether Bush

CBS News Poll. Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2005. N=936 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults).

"Before the war with Iraq, when talking about what they knew about the existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, do you think the members of the Bush Administration were telling everything they knew, most of what they knew, hiding important elements of what they knew, or mostly lying?"
						.
		Telling Everything	Telling Most	Hiding Elements	Mostly Lying	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	10/30 - 11/1/05	6	26	38	26	4
	1/14-18/05	8	29	36	23	4

With the public perception that Bush was “mostly lying” or “hiding elements” of the truth, Americans may be waiting a lot longer before Congressional Republicans conduct any meaningful investigation.