archived: 31 Oct - 5 Nov, 2005         Back                 Next

                        EASLEY 

In a major move on public education in North Carolina, Gov. Easley will implement a plan to bring North Carolina teachers to the national average in pay. 

Gov. Mike Easley unveiled a plan earlier this week to raise public school teachers' salaries above the national average in 2008, giving most educators a flat $600 raise for the rest of the school year as a down payment toward the goal.

 

Raising teacher salaries will improve schools and help retain good teachers, Easley said. "I can't speak for other states, but North Carolina's going to do our part to keep this nation strong," he said inside an elementary school. "At the end of the day, we've got to do it. We've got to get these teachers to the national average and beyond."

 

Teachers will get the extra pay - $75 more a month - starting Nov. 1, Easley said. The governor said he would then work with the General Assembly to give teachers a 5 percent raise over each of the next three years, at a projected annual price tag of $150 million.

 

According to the National Education Association, N.C. teachers on average earned $43,313 during the 2004-05 school year. The national average was $47,750.

 

If the goal is met, teachers in North Carolina would earn an average of $52,266, about $60 above the projected national average, during the 2008-09 school year, according to Easley's office. – The Sun News           

Easley’s announcement is an attempt to address the shortage of teachers in North Carolina.  Good policy and good politics. 

                        HEALTH CARE 

One of the potentially big issues in the 2006 campaigns is health care.  

According to a report by the Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research, health insurance premiums increased 9.2 percent this year, ending four consecutive years of double-digit increases. In comparison, the growth in workers' earnings increased less than 3 percent. Since 2000, premiums have gone up 73 percent.  The cost has affected businesses, leading smaller companies to drop health benefits, according to the study.  – Greenville Reflector           

As noted in TPJ’s Bush Watch today, radical Republicans in Congress are cutting federal health care benefits.   The Republican action will put even more pressure on North Carolina State Government.  

Republican cuts could not come at a worse time.  Consider the pending crisis: 

America's health care system – or rather lack of a system – has created a state of emergency for the country. With 46 million people without coverage and up to 100 million without adequate coverage, this emergency costs lives, financial stability, and threatens to unravel our social fabric. – Political Affairs 

North Carolina has experienced more dramatic losses in health care coverage than most states: 

From 1999 to 2004, Maryland, Maine, Missouri, North Carolina, and Wisconsin all experienced losses in coverage rates in excess of six percentage points. Not a single state experienced much of an increase in coverage. – Political Affairs 

In a recent study, "Decent Work in America" study, released Tuesday by UMass Amherst's Political Economy Research Institute, states were compared based on 2004 data covering average pay; job opportunities; benefits; percentage of low-income workers; fair treatment between genders; and ability to unionize. North Carolina ranked 41^st overall and ranked 39th for job opportunities, 28th for job quality and 39th for workplace fairness. 

If North Carolinians continue to lose their health care, we will not be progressing in the next UMass study. 

                        BUSH’S TAR HEEL 

An Elon College poll released this week confirms that Bush’s approval rating is falling in North Carolina.  The poll pegs approval at 41% and disapproval at 53%. 

While the Elon College poll is getting a lot of media attention, TPJ covered Bush’s numbers last week in TPJ, NC BUSH, based upon Survey USA polls.  Recapping, Survey USA polling over the past months indicates that Bush has suffered a precipitous drop in support in North Carolina. 

In the four months between May and September, Bush’s the spread between Bush’s approval/disapproval ratings dropped -4%, while in the spread dropped another -10% in the one month between September and October. 

According to Survey USA’s internal numbers, the drop comes among conservatives, white women, those age 35 to 54 and to a lesser extent a slight shift in Republicans and Independents.  However, TPJ’s assessment last week was that Survey USA had over polled Independents by about +6% and under polled Republicans by the same margin.  We concluded that Bush’s level of support is likely closer to 45% and his disapproval rating closer to 53%.  The rather dramatic shift in Survey USA’s September to October poll seemed largely attributable to sampling “noise,” chiefly that Republicans are under represented in comparison to their numbers at the polls. 

Elon College did not release data related to its sample, but extrapolating the results with the Survey USA report, TPJ believes that the Elon College poll, with a margin of error of 4.3% is relatively accurate and consistent with our previous estimates. 

The Elon College poll did contain rather important information for Democrats: 

37% approved or strongly approved of Bush’s handling of the economy, down from 42% in a September 2004 Elon Poll, but about the same as 36% in April 2005.

 

39% of respondents approved or strongly approved of Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq, down from 45 percent in a March 2005 Elon Poll. 57% disapproved or strongly disapproved of Bush’s handling of the Iraqi war, up from 43% in March 2005.

 

51% surveyed said the United States should not be in Iraq, compared with 43% who agreed with U.S. involvement.

 

29% said the Iraqi war was not worth fighting, 15% said the war was worth fighting, and 52% percent said they didn’t know.
 

56% who had a military affiliation disapproved or strongly disapproved of the president’s handling of the war in Iraq, while 41% approved or strongly approved.

 

29% percent of those with a military affiliation said the war in Iraq is not worth fighting, the same percentage as those with no military affiliation.

 

19% affiliated with the military said the war was worth fighting, compared with 14% among those without a military affiliation.

 

51% of military personnel said the U.S. should still be in Iraq, with 41% of those with a military affiliation saying the U.S. should not be in Iraq.

 

53% who are the parent, sibling or relative of a current member of the military said the U.S. should not be in Iraq, compared with 50 percent among those without a military relative.

 

40% percent of those with a relative in the military said the U.S should be in Iraq, while 44% of those without a military relative said the U.S. should be in Iraq.    

Looking at these findings globally, one is struck by the fact that Bush’s handling of the war is driving his overall polling numbers down.  Bush’s ratings for handling the economy are really unchanged in the past month. 

Most striking, and getting most of the headlines, is the fact that 56% of those with a military affiliation disapproved of Bush’s handling of the war.  The family and relatives of those serving in Iraq believe they should come home.  These are stunning numbers and a clear message for Democrats.

TAR HEEL DEM CELLAR