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archived: 6 - 12 Mar, 2005 Back Next
THE MORE THINGS CHANGE . . .
The more they stay the same; as the old adage goes. Unfortunately for Democrats the adage may be true.
Bush has started his second term with less than favorable news. Gasoline prices are high and going higher; interest rates are inching upward; the war in Iraq grinds on with American troop deaths reaching 1,500 this week; and public support for Bush’s Social Security reform is fading. One would assume that Bush’s approval ratings would be declining. Not true:
A USA TODAY-CNN-Gallup Poll taken a week ago (Feb. 25-27) put his job approval at 52%. That's about equal to the 51% of the vote he got in the election. That suggests that opinions about Bush have not changed much since the vote. Republicans still love him; Democrats still hate him. Independents are split.
Among Republicans, Bush's job approval is a robust 89%. Among Democrats, it is an anemic 15%. Independents split — 43% approve, 46% disapprove, within the poll's error margin of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.
He gets high marks on handling the war on terrorism. He gets low marks on handling Social Security. His grades are mediocre on managing the economy. – USA Today
A Teflon Tumble Weed? No. The answer lies in Democrats who have still not learned the lessons of the 2004 General Election.
Republican strategist Frank Luntz sums it up correctly: Republicans offered Americans an agenda of policies. In the face of Bush’s policy themes, Sen. Kerry, much like VP Al Gore before him, failed to articulate a sold and consistent platform. TPJ has covered the lack of a truly national Democratic Party policy in these articles (click on the hyperlinks to go directly to the articles):
AN ELECTION OF IDEAS – DEMOCRATS LOST
THE MESSAGE
FRANK LUNTZ, PART I
FRANK LUNTZ, PART II
SOCIAL SECURITY
Democracy Corps powerfully makes the point based on recent polling, particularly emphasizing the issue of Social Security reform. Their conclusion:
The Democrats emerged from the 2004 election defeated, but as a more than competitive party at the polls. But Democrats fell short and will continue to fall short, as they are faltering in the battle for ideas, purpose, strength, values and advocacy. With Democratic voters themselves leading the pull back from the party, it is obviously time for Democrats to take stock. – Democracy Corps (Junkie: This poll and analysis is a highly recommended read for all Democrats)
The most dramatic proof of Democracy Corps’ postulate is the battle being waged over Social Security. Social Security is one of the three linchpins, and perhaps most successful linchpin, of the Democratic Party’s domestic agenda. Republicans aim to dismantle the program, starting by privatizing Social Security accounts. No issue has more united Democrats against Bush and the radical Republicans.
Polling from a number of sources clearly demonstrates that the public does not trust Bush on this issue.
Support for the president’s proposal has fallen to 36 percent and perhaps even lower, depending on question wording. Worse for the president, 40 percent of voters strongly oppose his plan, rising to 63 percent among seniors. Congressional Democrats are now winning voters over 45 years by 12 points, according to the NPR survey, after faltering badly among aging voters just 4 months earlier. But Bush’s plan is not that popular with younger voters who divide evenly on it. – Democracy Corps (Junkie: Another must read poll and analysis)
Consider this graph. Americans are generally opposed to Bush’s plan and when Bush’s plan is explained the level of opposition increases by 10 points.
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Yet, while Americans are opposed to Bush’s plan, they are concerned about the future integrity of Social Security as this Democracy Corps graph clearly reveals:
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The message Americans are sending the Democratic Party is relatively simple. They distrust Bush and the Republicans on the issue, but are rightfully looking for assurance, particularly for younger citizens, that they are not paying into a system that will not exist when they retire.
Consider the most recent poll results on younger voters:
A poll released Wednesday found that Americans ages 18-29 -- the only age group that solidly supports Bush's idea of using their tax money to fund private retirement accounts -- is also the only group whose support for the idea has increased in recent months, although by a statistically insignificant margin. – Detroit Free Press
Now, list the three top Democratic Party proposals to ensure Social Security’s future. If even one answer fails to come mind there is a reason – Democrats in Congress have yet to fashion a unified set of policies to address Social Security.
Americans are looking for something more than simply opposition to Bush’s Social Security reform. They are looking for answers to the future problems that Social Security will encounter. They want security of mind that Social Security will exist and will pay benefits when they retire.
The essential question is profound: are Democrats truly a national party if they can not formulate a policy to ensure that one of the linchpins of their domestic agenda has future financial integrity. Bush’s approval ratings are not falling because Americans do not perceive that a mute Democratic Party is a viable alternative.
Americans are inherently perceptive.
WHERE ARE THE DEMOCRATS
CHAIRMAN DEAN
The lack of Democratic Party policy on Social Security was evident in a recent speech by Chairman Dean. Speaking at Cornell University, Chairman Dean made these remarks on the issue of Social Security:
Dean began by speaking on what he thought was the most important issue today: the proposed privatization of Social Security. He said that President George W. Bush was trying to appeal to 20- and 30-year-olds through privatization, but claimed that in fact that generation would end up having to pay the $2 trillion bill for it.
"I think that privatizing Social Security has much more to do with the enormous amount of money that corporate Wall Street poured into the President of the United States's campaign than [helping] senior citizens," Dean said. "[Social Security] was a response toward [overcoming] abject poverty...it is not meant as a retirement program...it was meant as a social safety net for people who had reached the end of their working careers and did not deserve, after a long lifetime of dignified work, to live in poverty. ... It's not supposed to be a pension."
. . . He acknowledged that while there were indeed problems with the program, turning to Wall Street was not the answer.
After emphasizing the effect of the deficit on today's student generation, Dean moved onto the importance of balancing the budget. – Cornell Daily Sun (emphasis added)
Not one word from Chairman Dean on what the “problems” are, much less any plan from the Democratic Party to face those problems? Astounding!
Democrats should insist that our Party address the future of Social Security. Send an email today to Chairman Dean asking that the Democratic Party announce its plans to ensure the future integrity of Social Security. TPJ readers can write Chairman Dean directly by clicking on the hyperlink below:
ARIANNA?
Arianna Huffington states the precise point that Democrats need to understand:
[Consider] the pale rhetoric and feeble resistance being offered by Democratic leaders in Washington these days. Sure, they've landed some heavy blows playing defense on the president's proposal to overhaul Social Security. But is this the only issue they are able to wrap their minds around? Are they just too exhausted to use their political muscle and imagination for anything else--including what should be the great political debate of our time, Iraq and the war on terror?
The latest Zogby poll shows that even in the aftermath of the post-Iraq election euphoria, just 39 percent of Americans think the war has been worth the lives lost fighting it. And Monday's 120-plus death toll (the bloodiest single attack since the war began) will only drive that number lower. But all we're hearing from Democratic leaders on Iraq are sentiments like those expressed by Hillary Clinton, who returned from her most recent trip sounding like, well, President Bush, explaining that suicide bombers are "an indication" of the "failure" of the insurgency, and that much of Iraq is "functioning quite well." She must have been visiting downtown Potemkin Village, where they take all U.S. dignitaries. Or maybe the Halliburton courtesy tent in the Green Zone.
President Bush keeps giving Democrats opening after opening on national security--including porous ports, insufficiently protected nuclear and chemical plants, and diminished numbers of first responders--yet all they can do is brood over whether they should follow Hillary's Zell Miller impersonation and embrace their inner red stater.
Figuring out how to talk about God and morality is all well and good, but the Democrats will never return to power until they can figure out how to take the national security cudgel out of the GOP's hands--while developing an economic message that . . . "appeals to workers, not to entrepreneurs, venture capitalists and intellectuals." – Arianna Junkie: A TPJ must read.
What more can be said?
Last Update: 03/23/2006
