Them Dems

TPJ continues its coverage of Republican Frank Luntz’ strategy guide for Republicans; focusing this week on Social Security. Luntz correctly analyzes that the debate over the future of Social Security is like no other issue:

Luntz believes that these four “facts” are those on which Republicans can build a winning dialogue with Americans

The Republican strategy is to (a) reassure those on Social Security that benefits will be paid; (b) assure those approaching retirement they will receive their benefits for which they paid into the system; (c) promise those in their mid-years that they will do much better with private accounts and (d) play on the fears of young workers that Social Security will be “bankrupt” by the time they are ready for retirement. Luntz makes his points with “one liners,” short expressions to make Republican points. These are the central points Democrats can expect to hear

At the moment, Luntz’ strategy guide is not working very well. A poll released yesterday contains some very encouraging news for Democrats:

Only one in three Americans approves of President Bush's handling of Social Security, his lowest rating on the issue since he took office.

A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll conducted Friday-Sunday found that 35% approved of Bush's Social Security record, 56% disapproved and 9% had no opinion. That was down from three weeks ago, when 43% approved. In March 2001, just after he took office, 49% approved. (Related: Poll results)

The poll included several pieces of bad news for Bush on the issue, which he has made his top priority this year. The president traveled to eight states in February to make the case for an overhaul. – USA Today

Rest assured that the Republicans are relentless on the issue and they will continue to press the issue. Social Security is one of the three cornerstones of progressive Democratic Party policy stemming from Roosevelt. Republicans have fought the program since its inception; they sense a chance to dismantle it. For example, the AARP is opposed to Bush’s privatization of Social Security. The Swift Boat gang has now found a new target – the AARP.

Have Democrats developed a strategy guide? If so, it is has not become pubic. TPJ invites its inventive readers to develop a strategy guide for Democrats. Send it to TPJ for publication.

If an enterprising reader undertakes the project they may want to start with this article in which Dick Armey calls for the end of Social Security:

Former U.S. House Majority Leader Dick Armey said Friday that Social Security should be phased out rather than saved.

"I think if you leave people free to choose, it will be phased out by competition," the former Republican congressman from Lewisville told reporters before sharing a President's Day Dinner with the Smith County Republican Club.

Armey, who left Congress in 2002 after 18 years, said younger Americans already believe personal investments produce greater retirement savings than Social Security will.

"We now have a generation of people that are thoroughly committed to investing their hopes and futures in private IRAs (Individual Retirement Accounts)," Armey said. "People will always do better for themselves when they are free to choose from among competing options than if they are compelled. Most thoughtful people could do better."

He said Social Security must remain solvent long enough to ensure older Americans collect on their lifelong payments into the system. But Americans who are at least younger than 50 should be allowed to divert their Social Security payments into personal accounts, he said.

"If it is such a great deal, why does the government have to make it mandatory," he said.

He added there will never be a class of destitute Americans who neglected to do their own investing.

"That argument might make sense in terms of a Social Security that gave a good return," he said, adding the government takes 15 percent of Americans' income in the Social Security tax. "And then they have the audacity to complain that we working men and women don't save enough." – News Journal

Frank Luntz is a long time Republican strategist and one of the political icons of the Republican Party. This is a link to his corporate website – Luntz Research.

TPJ has featured Luntz’ strategy work for the Republican Party on several occasions. Specifically, Luntz has written the playbook for Republicans on the issue of the environment, even more particularly global warming.

“The US Republican party is changing tactics on the environment, avoiding ‘frightening’ phrases such as global warming, after a confidential party memo warned that it is the domestic issue on which George Bush is most vulnerable. The memo, by the leading Republican consultant Frank Luntz, concedes the party has ‘lost the environmental communications battle’ and urges its politicians to encourage the public in the view that there is no scientific consensus on the dangers of greenhouse gases. ‘The scientific debate is closing [against us] but not yet closed. There is still a window of opportunity to challenge the science,’ Mr Luntz writes in the memo, obtained by the Environmental Working Group, a Washington-based campaigning organization. ‘Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming within the scientific community. Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate. The phrase ‘global warming’ should be abandoned in favor of ‘climate change’, Mr Luntz says, and the party should describe its policies as ‘conservationist’ instead of ‘environmentalist’, because ‘most people’ think environmentalists are ‘extremists’ who indulge in "some pretty bizarre behavior... that turns off many voters’.” -- TPJ, Double Talk (Citing an article from Guardian Unlimited)

A testament to Luntz’ work is the fact that after some two years the Democrats have not been effective in stopping the strategy that Luntz created and the Republicans are religiously (pun intended) implementing.

Luntz has written an analysis of the 2004 General Election and issued a new playbook for Republicans. It is fascinating. TPJ will discuss in some detail substantial portions of Luntz’ work over the coming weeks.

Luntz provides a rather simple explanation for Bush’s victory in November – Bush had credibility; Sen. Kerry did not.

The critical reference for Democrats is Luntz’ observation, echoed by many Democrats during the campaign, “What Kerry did not realize was that referencing “a plan” roughly two dozen times over 90-minute is different than actually having one.”

Luntz’ thesis is supported by the Exit Poll results: -- CNN Of the 34% of the voters looking for a strong leader and clear stand on the issues, Bush won these voters by a margin of 4 to 1 or greater.

MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

TOTAL

2004

2000

2004

Cares About People (9%)

24%

n/a

75%

Religious Faith (8%)

91%

n/a

Honest/Trustworthy (11%)

70%

n/a

29%

Strong Leader (17%)

87%

n/a

12%

Intelligent (7%)

n/a

91%

Will Bring Change (24%)

n/a

95%

Clear Stand on Issue (17%)

79%

n/a

20%

In Luntz’ view, which TPJ considers correct, the Swift Boat attack on Sen. Kerry was instrumental.

Luntz also sees the Republican National Convention as desisive: