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archived: 2 - 7 Jan, 2005 Back Next WINNING THE STATE HOUSE This week continues its review of the 2004 election results with an analysis of the results in the NC State House. For those who might have missed TPJ’s analysis of other races in North Carolina and the South, follow these links to: AN ELECTION OF IDEAS – DEMOCRATS LOST (Kerry v. Bush Exit Poll Results) NORTH CAROLINA NUMBERS (Kerry v. Bush: County by County Results) EASLEY: THE SOUTHERN DEMOCRATIC FORMULA (Easley v. Ballantine) THE SOUTH RISES AGAIN (Republican Domination of the South) Overview The Democratic Party recaptured the State House by winning 63 of 120 seats. In an election where NC Democrats generally lost the national races, recapturing the State House was welcomed news. Follow this link for district by district vote totals: -- House Districts Upon closer examination, however, the actual margins leading to the majority in the State House was razor thin. In the final analysis, the Democratic Party won control of the State House by a mere 2,642 votes in four districts. Analysis In the contests for the State House, 71 seats, well over half of the chamber, were uncontested: Democrats simply conceded 35 seats to the Republicans who were unopposed by Democrats (Libertarians did mount some candidates). Republicans conceded 36 seats to Democrats who were unopposed by Republicans (Libertarians did mount some candidates). For Republicans, some 24 of the 35 uncontested counties were in districts contiguous to or west of I-85. Of the 11 remaining uncontested seats, 5 districts were in Wake County or contiguous counties to Wake. For Democrats, the 36 uncontested seats were slightly more geographically diverse: 13 uncontested districts were contiguous to or east of the I-95 corridor. 11 uncontested districts included Durham, Orange and Wake counties or districts adjacent thereto. 5 uncontested districts were in Mecklenburg County. 3 uncontested seats were from Guilford or Forsyth Counties. Follow this link to see the uncontested Democratic Party State House Seats – Democratic Uncontested Seats Only 49 seats were contested between the major Parties. Of the contested State House seats, Democrats won 27 and Republicans 22. Follow this link to the contested seats – Contested Seats Not all 49 nine districts were highly competitive. TPJ defines “highly competitive” contests as having final margins between the candidates of 10% or less. Districts in which the winning candidate received more than 55% of the vote is indicative that while the district was contested, it was not truly competitive. Using these criteria, 38 State House districts that were contested were not “highly competitive.” Of these 38 districts:
Democrats won 20 districts with more than 55% of the vote. Combining the uncontested seats and uncompetitive seats, Democrats won 56 seats and the Republicans won 53 seats. The Democratic Party net gain of +3, represents one-half of the total gain achieved, +6. As a consequence, control of the State House rested on the outcome of a mere 11 seats, the Hot 11 State House Districts. Democrats won 7 and Republicans won 4 of these seats, giving Democrats majority control of the State House. These are the Hot 11 State House Districts in descending order of Democratic Party performance.
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