THE BOUNCE
TPJ continues to follow Bush’s bounce in the polls. Since our last report, the bounce appears to have stabilized with Bush at an approval rating not above 42%. While most polls continue to have Bush at or above 40%, two polls; NBC and Pew, continue to report an approval rating below 40%.
On poll, Diageo/Hotline has Bush returning to an approval rating of 50% with a disapproval rating of 47%. No other polling services’ results remotely mirror Diageo/Hotline’s results. TPJ concludes, with nothing else appearing, that the Diageo/Hotline poll in December is an “outlier” (wrong). TPJ still uses the Diageo/Hotline poll to maintain consistency on the polls that are reported month to month, which should give an accurate picture of Bush’s standing with Americans.
With an approval rating in the low 40’s and a disapproval rating average clearly above 50%, the Bush administration is ending 2005 in serious trouble. The Democrat effort to make the case against Bush is very important. If anyone should need proof of that assertion, the failure of the Republican majority to enact an extension of the Patriot Act, see TPJ’s Bush Watch today, is proof. Simply ask the question if Democratic Senators, joined by a few Republicans, could have blocked passage IF Bush’s approval ratings were in the mid to upper 50% range?
Democrats simply have to keep making the case.
|
|
Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FOX RV |
12/13-14/05 |
42.00 |
|
51.00 |
7.00 |
-9.00 |
|
Diageo/Hotline |
12/12-13/05 |
50.00 |
|
47.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
|
NBC/WST |
12/9-12/05 |
39.00 |
|
55.00 |
6.00 |
-16.00 |
|
CNN/USA/Gallup |
12/9-11/05 |
42.00 |
|
55.00 |
3.00 |
-13.00 |
|
Cook/RTS |
12/8-11/05 |
42.00 |
|
55.00 |
2.00 |
-13.00 |
|
Pew |
12/7-11/05 |
38.00 |
|
54.00 |
8.00 |
-16.00 |
|
Gallup |
12/5-8/05 |
43.00 |
|
52.00 |
5.00 |
-9.00 |
|
AP-Ipsos * |
12/5-7/05 |
42.00 |
|
57.00 |
|
-15.00 |
|
CBS/NYTimes |
12/2-6/05 |
40.00 |
|
53.00 |
7.00 |
-13.00 |
|
Quinnipiac RV |
11/28 - 12/4/05 |
40.00 |
|
54.00 |
7.00 |
-14.00 |
|
Time |
11/29 - 12/1/05 |
41.00 |
|
53.00 |
5.00 |
-12.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
December Average |
|
41.73 |
3.80 |
53.27 |
5.30 |
-11.55 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
November Average |
37.92 |
-1.93 |
56.46 |
6.09 |
-18.54 |
|
|
October Average |
39.86 |
-1.46 |
55.07 |
5.58 |
-15.21 |
|
|
September Average |
41.31 |
-1.91 |
53.75 |
4.81 |
-12.44 |
|
|
August Average |
43.22 |
-2.38 |
52.33 |
4.33 |
-9.11 |
|
|
July Average |
45.60 |
0.60 |
49.00 |
5.30 |
-3.40 |
|
|
June Average |
45.00 |
-1.50 |
49.83 |
5.33 |
-4.83 |
|
|
May Average |
46.50 |
-1.10 |
48.33 |
5.17 |
-1.83 |
|
|
April Average |
47.60 |
-1.28 |
49.00 |
3.20 |
-1.40 |
|
|
March Average |
48.88 |
-1.13 |
46.00 |
5.13 |
2.88 |
|
|
February Average |
50.00 |
-1.00 |
46.29 |
3.71 |
3.71 |
|
|
January Average |
51.00 |
|
44.71 |
4.00 |
6.29 |
Last Update: 12/17/2005