archived: 11 - 17 Dec, 2005         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  December 15, 2005 

                        OCALA  

The Ocala Star-Banner has authored an editorial that every Democrat should read.  The Star Banner notes that Democrats appear to be gaining on the issues in Florida and the Democratic Party structure is making some positive steps to ascendancy.  The editorial clearly denotes the critical component that is missing – a component that TPJ has stressed: 

Buoyed by growing public discontent with the war in Iraq, a lethargic national economy, the miserable response to Katrina, a ballooning federal deficit, and the scandals and special-interest favoritism that have become a hallmark of the current administration in Washington, Florida’s Democrats are energized.

They are also making smart, strategic decisions. The party's lineup for state offices is not overcrowded, aiming to avoid the divisive, costly and failed election efforts of the recent past. Candidates, most visibly Davis and Smith, are more politically moderate than in the past and have the resumes to back up such claims. Thurman is knocking on every door she can think of trying to raise more money to close the gap - a rather significant one - in campaign funding.

All in all, the Democrats have good reason to feel good about their party and their prospects.

"I don't think it's time to open the champagne, but both in terms of organization and electoral process things are looking better now than they have since 1998 when (Gov.) Bush took over," University of North Florida political science professor Matthew Corrigan told The Associated Press.

A pot of money and positive poll numbers, though, will not be enough if the Democrats hope to regain some of the ground they have lost over the past decade. No, they need a message with defined and defensible positions on an array of family and social issues, from abortion to education, and health care to water.

Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, who is testing the presidential waters and attended the Florida convention, offered the best advice.

"We've got to be about more than just being against the president," he told conventioneers.

Exactly. Florida is beset by problems and they are growing. Many of the challenges can be attributed to our state's phenomenal growth, but the absence of a diversity of ideas certainly has hamstrung progress on a number of fronts. Certainly Floridians don't think the results of our all-Republican state government are anything special. A recent statewide poll taken by the Quinnipiac (Conn.) University Polling Institute found that while nearly 60 percent of voters give Gov. Bush a favorable rating, only three in 10 believe education - his policy centerpiece - had improved under his watch. Just 30 percent said the economy was better after seven years under Gov. Bush, and only 9 percent said Bush's touted tax-cutting initiatives had had a positive impact on their tax bills.

There is plenty for Florida Democrats to seize upon if they want to be part of this state's leadership. Education, the economy and immigration were listed by poll participants as their three greatest concerns and are good start.

But the Democrats need a clear, concise message - on an array of issues. Polls and party war chests alone won't win over the voters. Only fresh, workable ideas that make our everyday lives better will do that. 

The message from Ocala is one that applies to Democrats everywhere.

_____________________________________________

                        THE BOUNCE  

After months of falling poll numbers, Bush has finally achieved a “bounce” in his approval/disapproval ratings, up +2.83% from his November average.  TPJ had marveled that as Bush’s approval ratings fell throughout 2005 to the level of the core Republican base that Bush’s support had not stabilized.  

Of the four polling firms releasing polls in December, the consensus opinion is that Bush’s “bounce” is attributable to his recent tour across America defending the war in Iraq and reports of an improved economy.  The CBS/NYT poll directly asked respondents why they approved or disapproved of Bush’s performance in office.  The results are instructive:

WHY DISAPPROVE OF BUSH'S JOB? (Asked of those who disapprove of Bush's job)
53% Iraq war
8% Doing a bad job generally
8% Dishonest
6% Other domestic issues
5% Other personal qualities
4% Economy/jobs

WHY APPROVE OF BUSH'S JOB? (Asked of those who approve of Bush's job)
35% Doing a good job generally
13% Iraq war
8% Honest
6% Other personal qualities
5% Agree with him on issues
5% His party/ideology
5% Handling of terrorism

The effect of the war in Iraq is obvious from the responses, with a 4 to 1 ratio (53% to 13%) of those who disapprove opposed to approve of Bush because of the war in Iraq. More subtly, several points emerge.  First, carefully note that 35% of those who approve cite that Bush is doing a good job generally.  This response appears to signify that Republican Party core support remains loyal and is centered on support for their Party opposed to specific issues.  Second, of those who disapprove of Bush’s presidency, only 4% cite the economy/jobs as the reason.  The low level of this response suggests that Democrats have much work remaining in educating the public on this issue. 

Democrats should not be overly alarmed.  Even with the “bounce,” Bush’s December Average approval (+40.75%), with a high disapproval rating (+54.25%), are low marks for an incumbent President at this stage of their presidency.  Bush’s “bounce” does reinforce TPJ’s warnings that the Republican Party is not in a state of collapse.  Democrats must remain dedicated in making its case on direction of the country and policy issues. 

                         CALIFORNIA 48TH 

A special election was held in the California 48^th Congressional District.  California 48^th, Orange County, is historically a strong Republican District in which a Democrat, under normal circumstances, has virtually no chance of winning.  Republicans enjoy a voter registration advantage of 2 to 1 in the District. 

Democrats were optimistic that Bush’s falling poll numbers and recent Republican scandals would afford an opportunity to challenge in the District.  It would also be a test for Democrats who advocate a strategy of contesting every election.  Progressive bloggers in particular called on Democrats to assist Steve Young mount a challenge to Republican State Senator John Campbell.   

The race was significant because the Republican Party sponsored candidate (Campbell) received a challenge from within his own Party, Jim Gilchrist, who ran an uber right campaign focused on anti-immigration issues.   The result: 

Campbell (R)     45%
Young (D)         28%
Gilchrist (R)       25% 

The outcome has some valuable lessons for Democrats.  First, Democrats’ visions of a Republican Party collapse simply do not comport to the current reality despite falling support for Bush.  The final vote generally mirrors Party registration in the District, 2 to 1 Republican, as both Republicans got 67% of the vote while the Democrat got 28%.   

Second, the election clearly demonstrates a major fault line running through the Republican Party – immigration: 

The issue has created anxiety among some Republican strategists by pitting two key party constituencies against one another. Though powerful business groups welcome the supply of cheap labor provided by illegal immigration, many conservatives say stricter laws are needed to stem its costs and the erosion, as they see it, of the country's culture.

The issue has also created tension between President Bush and leaders of the national Republican Party — who wish to expand the GOP's appeal among the nation's fast-growing Latino population — and others who believe the party is selling out its core values by pandering.

Pointedly, party leaders ignored Gilchrist and the immigration issue in the statements they issued Wednesday congratulating Campbell. Not so Democrats. Party Chairman Howard Dean issued a statement in Washington saying "the resounding defeat of the Minuteman candidate last night in Orange County sent a powerful message that voters are tired of the politics of hate and divisiveness."

Bill Burton, a Democratic Party spokesman, said the election underscored "a clear division within the Republican ranks over what direction to go on the issue of immigration…. They are going to have a tough time figuring out where they stand when Bush is in one place, Republican leaders in another and candidates around the country in their own place."  -- LA Times (emphasis added) 

Hopefully the Democratic Party will heed the lessons from California 48^th.

NEXT- MICHAEL CARMICHAEL

Last Update: 03/23/2006