archived: 31 Jul  - 6 Aug, 2005         Back                 Next

                        BUSH POLLS 

It has been an eventful summer; Iraq continues to slip toward civil war; the Bolton nomination stalls; and the London bombings rock the world.  Yet, Bush’s poll numbers have not really moved since June. 

For Democrats, the positives in these polling numbers are: (1) Bush’s approval rating continues well below 50% and (2) Bush’s disapproval ratings remain greater than his approval ratings.  The negative implication from these polling numbers is that Bush’s decline has, at least for the moment, abated.  

Two forces are at work to support Bush’s standing at about 45%.  First, Bush’s political base remains solid.  As long as the Republican base holds, expect Bush’s poll numbers to remain no lower than the 40% range. 

Second, the more interesting phenomena, is the interplay of support Bush obtains from his base who actually agree with his policies and the “values” issue voters.  Democracy Corps posed this question in its July polling survey: -- Democracy Corps 

I agree with George Bush on most issues. ..........................................34

I may not agree with George Bush on many of his issues, but it

is important to continue his direction on moral values and the

family..............................................................................................24

I don't agree with George Bush's direction. ..........................................42

(Don't know/Refused)...........................................................................1 

The Democracy Corps question clearly explains why, from our perspective as Democrats, that Bush can be so wrong on the issues but still garners sufficient public support to effectively enact his radical right policy agenda.  This Republican coalition of issues and values also explains how a sizeable majority of American’s, some 54% by last measure, can truthfully answer that America is headed in the wrong direction, an issues question, and Bush can still maintain approval ratings, a leadership question, in the range of 46%.   

Bush’s recent scores on significant single policy issues have recently been falling; the best example being the war in Iraq where Americans are coming to the conclusion that the war was wrong policy.  Yet, there is a segment of the voting public for which “moral values” and the “family” trump these policy considerations.  

The poll results suggest voters perceive that moral values are distinct and disconnected from “issues;” the war in Iraq, global warming, jobs, taxes.  It is this disconnect that Democrats must address. 

Democrat Jan Schakowsky, Illinois, while not a household name in Democratic Party circles nationwide, offers constructive lessons on point: 

First, progressives and Democrats don’t need an extreme makeover. Far from it. We do not need to rethink our values and principles, rewrite our agenda or move to the “center.” Polls taken the day before the 2004 election as well as the day after tell us clearly that the Democrats are already where most Americans are on the issues and also on values. The post-election Zogby poll asked respondents to name the moral values most important to them. Two to one, they named “greed and materialism” and “poverty and economic justice” over “abortion” and “same sex marriage.” They share our values. We do, in fact, represent the aspirations of the majority of Americans.

“Don’t” number two is our tendency to talk about our beliefs in terms of programs and policies. I have a ten-point health care plan. I have a housing policy. The right-wingers talk in terms of “right and wrong.” Right and wrong trumps programs and policies every time.

My three “Dos”: First, do what your mother said—or at least what my mother said—stand up straight. What people like least about progressives and Democrats is that they think we’re squishy. They think Bush is tough, knows what he believes and is willing to fight for it. Americans like tough, even when they don’t entirely agree with the substance. Voters like tough; voters don’t like tentative.

Standing up straight requires staying on the offensive. If we are playing defense, we are losing. The Republicans are providing us with a wealth of opportunities—unlimited examples of abuse of power, multiple examples of plain old corruption and greed, predatory economic policies, the quagmire in Iraq, threats to our Constitutional rights and devastating environmental policies.

Nothing should stop progressives from proudly and aggressively standing up in opposition to conservatives’ assault on fundamental, mainstream American values and sensibilities. Most Americans agree that it’s just plain wrong to give millionaires a $140,000 annual tax break, or eliminate the estate tax for 52,000 U.S. families at a cost of nearly $1 trillion over ten years, or reward companies that exchange good jobs at home for slave-wage jobs overseas, and at the same time starve education, Medicaid, veterans’ health care, and even homeland security. Most Americans resent being lied to about going to war and about outing undercover CIA agents. So many offenses, so little time.

The second “Do”—say it again. Repeat, repeat, repeat. Steve Chapman, a columnist for the Chicago Tribune observed that in math, 100 x 0 = 0. In politics, you say something a hundred times and it adds up to something. Consider the repeal of the estate tax, which is nothing more than a giveaway to (as my mother would say) the “filthy rich.” The President calls it the death tax. Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, and right-wing talk radio call it the death tax. The Washington Times writes about the death tax. And before you know it, the New York Times writes about the death tax, and since everybody dies, the public starts asking for relief from the death tax. Republican repetition of the same talking points may irritate you, but it represents the level of discipline that we need if we ever expect average Americans to hear what we stand for and be able to articulate it in one declarative sentence.

For the final “Do,” I borrow from Nike’s successful corporate slogan “Just Do It.” Quite frankly, I am sick of conversations about how disadvantaged we are because they control so much of the media or how the right-wing has been building its infrastructure for decades—even if it is true. If I had a dollar for every time a progressive whined about this, there would be enough money to balance the federal budget and fix Social Security for another 70 years.

Actually, the campaign to save Social Security is a perfect example of progressives “just doing it,” as well as standing up straight, and saying the same thing again and again. – In These Times 

TPJ believes that Rep. Schakowsky has expressed the winning formula as correctly and clearly as any Democrat to date.      

NEXT- MICHAEL CARMICHAEL

Last Update: 03/23/2006